Spezia play host to Hellas Verona on Thursday afternoon having established a five-point cushion above the Serie A relegation zone.
While Hellas Verona are comfortable in mid-table, the visitors went into the Christmas break having failed to win in three matches.
Match preview
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Between the end of September and the start of December, everything appeared to be heading in the right direction for Hellas Verona under Igor Tudor.
However, on the back of collecting 23 points over a 13-game period, they have failed to win any of their last three fixtures, the only point coming at home to Fiorentina.
Even earning a share of the spoils in that contest proved frustrating, their opponent's equaliser coming nine minutes from time, and Tudor was perhaps pleased to have a break from action.
The 4-3 victory away at Venezia last month is still fresh in the memory, but that result represented I Gialloblu's only victory on their travels in nine attempts this season.
On a positive note, Hellas Verona made light work of their next opponents in the reverse fixture, netting four goals without reply at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
Nevertheless, Spezia are playing with far more belief than they were back in October, and that was proven in their final game of 2021.
Despite Napoli dropping off alarmingly over the past six weeks, Spezia pulling off a 1-0 victory in Naples represented one of the surprise results in European football's major leagues this season.
Thiago Motta's side now sit five points clear of the relegation zone ahead of a period of favourable games, aside from the trip to AC Milan on January 17.
Their home form has been nothing to shout about, but Hellas Verona will not ignore that their hosts have conceded just 12 goals in nine games at Stadio Alberto Picco.
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Team News
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Spezia will be forced into at least one change with Rey Manaj one of several players to have recently tested positive for coronavirus.
Janis Antiste could be the player to be brought into the team with M'Bala Nzola also missing for the same reason.
Ebrima Colley is unavailable for this fixture having linked up with the Gambia squad for the Africa Cup of Nations.
Hellas Verona midfielder Martin Hongla is away at the same competition with Cameroon, but he is unlikely to have featured in the starting lineup.
While Giangiacomo Magnani is available again after suspension, the defender tested positive for coronavirus over the Christmas period.
Tudor may potentially select the same team which started the meeting with Fiorentina.
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Amian, Erlic, Nikolaou; Gyasi, Maggiore, Kiwior, Bastoni, Reca; Agudelo, Antiste
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Tameze, Casale, Sutalo; Faraoni, Ilic, Veloso, Lazovic; Lasagna, Caprari; Simeone
We say: Spezia 1-3 Hellas Verona
Despite the result before the scheduled break, the pressure remains firmly on Spezia's shoulders ahead of this game. With Verona able to play with a greater freedom, we are backing the visitors to claim all three points.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 33.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (6.99%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hellas Verona would win this match.
