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Venezia
Serie A | Gameweek 17
Dec 11, 2021 at 5pm UK
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
Juventus logo

Venezia
1 - 1
Juventus

Aramu (55')
Modolo (41'), Caldara (51'), Ampadu (62'), Kiyine (90')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Morata (32')
Pellegrini (16'), Bernardeschi (62')

Preview: Venezia vs. Juventus - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Venezia and Juventus, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Having put together a run of three successive wins, Juventus continue their quest to catch the top four on Saturday, as they visit Venezia at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.

Though progress as group winners has been sealed in the Champions League, the fifth-placed Bianconeri must still close a seven-point gap to the sides above them in Serie A.


Match preview

Juventus' Moise Kean celebrates scoring their first goal with Federico Bernardeschi on October 17, 2021© Reuters

Two home wins in the space of three days has helped Juventus recover from their most recent crisis of 2021, amid a recurring cycle of underachievement at the Turin club.

Following a regulation 2-0 victory over lowly Genoa last Sunday - Juan Cuadrado and Paulo Dybala scoring at either end of the game - with Wednesday's win against Malmo has eased some of the pressure building on Max Allegri and his much-criticised squad.

One of a number of players who have not lived up to their billing this term has been young striker Moise Kean - whose winning goal versus the Swedish champions was just his third of the 2021-22 season - and Juve's goal return is the worst among Serie A's top twelve.

Nonetheless, Juventus have now qualified for the last 16 as Group H winners, so can concentrate fully on their faltering domestic campaign, as they remain some distance away from the Serie A summit: 11 points behind current leaders Milan.

While Dybala has begun to show signs of life after an injury-plagued year, it has been at the back that Allegri's team has improved of late, and they have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five league matches - conceding just once in the defeat to Atalanta. Considering it took them 29 games to post as many shut-outs previously, that bodes well for Juve's hopes heading into the second half of the season.

Amid a run where they encounter several of Serie A's bottom five, before the upcoming winter break, the Bianconeri travel to Venice in search of a third straight success on the road in the Italian top flight - with the club having enjoyed a crushing dominance over their hosts in years gone by.

AC Milan's Brahim Diaz in action with Venezia's Dor Peretz on September 22, 2021© Reuters

Not only have Venezia - who recently returned to the top tier after a two-decade absence - suffered 15 defeats in their 17 most recent Serie A matches against Juventus, but the Old Lady are also the side to have beaten them the most times overall.

Allied to their recent form, which has seen the Arancioneroverdi slip to three straight defeats for the concession of 10 goals, that makes their task of taking points off their next visitors all the more intimidating this weekend.

Paolo Zanetti's men have also leaked two or more goals in each of their last four home games; equalling the Venetian club's longest such run in the top flight, which came over 50 years ago.

Their latest loss saw a three-goal advantage somehow evaporate in the space of 15 second-half minutes, before their local rivals Verona went ahead through Giovanni Simeone's definitive second strike late on, consigning Venezia to a 4-3 defeat at the Penzo.

Such struggles at their inimitable headquarters has seen the Lagunari sink to 16th in the standings after a promising start, and Zanetti will be concerned that his team are now within five points of the drop zone, with one of the division's worst defensive records so far.

Losses to free-scoring Atalanta and reigning champions Inter may have been as expected, but pre-Christmas fixtures with Juve and Lazio mean that Venezia's struggles could be set to continue for a while yet.

Venezia Serie A form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L

Juventus Serie A form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

Juventus form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Juventus attacker Federico Chiesa in action against Chelsea on November 23, 2021© Reuters

Juventus made a series of changes for their Champions League dead rubber with Malmo in midweek, but will recall all the main men available to them for the trip to Veneto.

While Moise Kean's goal could help him usurp Alvaro Morata from the league lineup, Koni De Winter, Daniele Rugani and Arthur are among those likely to make way on Saturday evening, as Juan Cuadrado, Matthijs de Ligt and Manuel Locatelli come back in to the starting XI. First-choice stopper Wojciech Szczesny also returns in goal.

Federico Chiesa - whose thigh injury is set to keep him sidelined until 2022 - Dejan Kulusevski and Aaron Ramsey will not feature though, and Danilo remains a doubt for Saturday's game.

A crucial factor in Venezia's collapse against Verona last week was Pietro Ceccaroni's sending off halfway through the second period, and the centre-back must now serve a suspension as a result.

Therefore, Michael Svoboda should come into the hosts' back four, which should include former Juve man Cristian Molinaro at left-back and will line up in front of experienced goalkeeper Sergio Romero. Back from a ban, Ethan Ampadu returns to midfield.

Only Luca Fiordilino (hernia) and striker David Okereke (muscular) are expected to be absent through injury, so Thomas Henry and Dennis Johnsen could start up front. Joint-top scorer Okereke has netted four goals in 13 league appearances this season - including the winner against Roma - so his injury is a bitter blow to Venezia's hopes this month.

Venezia possible starting lineup:
Romero; Mazzocchi, Caldara, Svoboda, Molinaro; Vacca, Ampadu, Crnigoj; Aramu; Johnsen, Henry

Juventus possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; De Sciglio, Bonucci, De Ligt, Sandro; Bentancur, Locatelli; Cuadrado, Dybala, Bernardeschi; Morata


SM words green background

We say: Venezia 1-3 Juventus

These two sides are trending in opposite directions as the mid-season break approaches, and there is little evidence to suggest that Juventus will not continue to improve an under-par points tally at the expense of their hosts.

Venezia's defensive deficiencies should play into the hands of a Juve team often lacking inspiration inside the final third, and a two-goal margin of victory is possible for the visiting side.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



ID:472404:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect12611:
Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventus win with a probability of 64.02%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 16.36%.

The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.87%) and 0-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.11%), while for a Venezia win it was 2-1 (4.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Venezia vs Juventus

Venezia
9.5%
Draw
9.5%
Juventus
81.0%
105
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Juventus' Federico Chiesa celebrates with the Coppa Italia trophy on May 19, 2021
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16Como163671828-1015
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1750122140-1915
18CagliariCagliari163581526-1114
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