The heavyweight clash of CONCACAF qualification for the 2022 World Cup will take place in Ohio on Saturday, when the USA welcome Mexico to the TQL Stadium.
El Tri currently sit three points clear of the Stars and Stripes at the top of the table as they approach the halfway point in qualifying, though Gregg Berhalter's men will be confident of closing this gap after winning their last two meetings against them.
Match preview
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After suffering a surprise 1-0 defeat away against Panama, the USA bounced back with a 2-1 victory on home soil against Costa Rica last month.
The Stars and Stripes went behind in the very first minute with a goal from Keysher Fuller, however the hosts were able to turn the game on its head with a 25th-minute strike from Sergino Dest as well as an own goal from Leonel Moreira midway through the second half to ensure they came away with all three points.
Gregg Berhalter's side remain one of the strong favourites to qualify for the 2022 tournament in Qatar and their most recent victory helped them to maintain second place in the table, three points clear of Panama in fourth who currently occupy the inter-confederation playoff spot.
The USA head into this eagerly-anticipated encounter with Mexico having already defeated them in two important matches in 2021. An entertaining 3-2 victory after extra time in the CONCACAF Nations League final in June was followed by another extra-time triumph in the Gold Cup final two months later, this time winning by a slender 1-0 scoreline.
The Stars and Stripes also boast an impressive 17-game unbeaten record on home soil across all competitions, though their last defeat on their own patch was in fact against Mexico, losing 3-0 back September 2019.
Berhalter's men will be aware of the importance of Saturday's clash as a victory would provide a huge boost in their quest to advance to next year's World Cup, as well as to potentially finish at the summit of the CONCACAF qualification table.
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Mexico, meanwhile, are one of only two CONCACAF nations – along with Canada – who remain unbeaten from their opening six matches in the final stage of qualifying, with their most recent victory coming against El Salvador, who they beat 2-0 away from home last month.
Hector Moreno opened the scoring on the half-hour mark before Raul Jimenez scored his first international goal since recovering from a fractured skull by converting a 93rd-minute penalty kick, in a game which also saw both sides reduced to 10 men in the second half.
Mexico have qualified for each of the last seven World Cup tournaments and they are on course to advance to next year's showpiece event in Qatar, as they currently sit top of the table, eight points clear of Costa Rica in fifth.
Gerardo Martino's men head into Saturday's game after suffering defeat in their last international match, losing 3-2 in a friendly fixture at home against Ecuador, albeit with a much-rotated squad. El Tri are now back to full strength for their trip to Ohio and will be seeking revenge against their American counterparts, as they have painful memories of two major final defeats still fresh in their minds.
With another challenging encounter to come four days later against third-placed Canada, securing two victories this month would consolidate their place in the top three and would surely see the Mexicans on their way to Qatar.
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Team News
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USA boss Berhalter has a fully fit 25-man squad to choose from on Friday, following the return of star winger Christian Pulisic, who will be in contention to start.
Goalkeeper Zack Steffen is set to remain between the sticks ahead of Matt Turner, while Miles Robinson could be joined in the heart of the defence by either Walker Zimmerman or Chris Richards.
With Dest not selected for this month's qualifiers due to a back injury, either Joe Scally or DeAndre Yedlin are expected to start at right-back, with Antonee Robinson operating at left-back.
Weston McKennie could be joined in central midfield by Tyler Adams and Yunus Musah, while 18-year-old sensation Ricardo Pepi – who has been linked with a move to the Premier League – may be joined in attack by Pulisic and Timothy Weah.
As for Mexico, they will be without centre-back Nestor Araujo, who is suspended after receiving a red card against El Salvador.
Right-back Luis Rodriguez is set to be brought into the starting lineup as a result, which will see Julio Cesar Dominguez move to centre-back alongside Moreno.
Martino is expected to stick with a 4-3-3 formation, which could see Jimenez return to the first XI, joining Napoli's Hirving Lozano and Porto's Jesus Corona in a three-man attack.
USA possible starting lineup:
Steffen; Scally, Zimmerman, M. Robinson, A. Robinson; Musah, Adams, McKennie; Weah, Pepi, Pulisic
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Rodriguez, Dominguez, Moreno, Gallardo; Herrera, Guardado, Alvarez; Corona, Jimenez, Lozano
We say: USA 2-2 Mexico
The USA may have a slight psychological edge heading into this encounter,after their last two victories against Mexico, though the visitors will be fired up to get their revenge as well as maintain their unbeaten record in qualifying.
Only two of the last 10 meetings between these two nations have ended as a draw, but with little to separate them, an entertaining score draw could be on the cards in Ohio.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 35% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA would win this match.
