Shakhtar

4 - 1

Mariupol

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 64.59%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Mariupol had a probability of 14.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.05%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.9%), while for a Mariupol win it was 0-1 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtar Donetsk would win this match.