Swansea City and Birmingham City meet this weekend as disappointing campaigns for both clubs begin to peter out.
The Swans – beaten playoff finalists last season – are currently 15th in the Championship table, six points ahead of the Blues in 20th who are set for a sixth consecutive bottom-half finish.
Match preview
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Swansea avoided a scare in midweek as they came from behind to beat bottom club Peterborough United 3-2 away from home, with Joel Piroe netting a 91st-minute winner.
Despite winning for the first time in three matches, Russell Martin admitted that he did not speak to the players after the game as he was so disappointed with their performance.
The Swans have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 games and were beaten 5-1 by Fulham in their last match at the Swansea.com Stadium.
With the South Wales derby against Cardiff City to come immediately after the international break, Martin will be keen to head into the next fortnight with a bit of momentum.
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Lee Bowyer was also an unhappy manager in midweek as he admitted that Birmingham's 2-0 loss to Middlesbrough was "worrying" as they rolled over and accepted defeat.
Bowyer, who celebrated one year in charge at St Andrew's this week, has now seen his team win just twice in their last 11 matches.
Blues' victory over Bristol City in their last away game was the first time that they had picked up three points on the road since the end of October.
Birmingham have won their last two games against Swansea – triumphing 2-1 in this season's reverse fixture at St Andrew's – but have not won on any of their last 11 visits to South Wales to face the Swans or Cardiff since 2008.
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Team News
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Swansea remain without full-back Ryan Manning who will serve the third game of a four-match suspension for his red card against Fulham in the team's last home game.
Midfielders Korey Smith and Hannes Wolf have both filled in at left-back and left wing-back in Manning's absence, but January signing Nathanael Ogbeta is a more natural option and may now be fit enough to play there following a hamstring injury.
Michael Obafemi is enjoying his best form of the season upfront, scoring six goals in his last nine appearances.
Birmingham also have a player suspended, with Kristian Pedersen unavailable after his red card against Middlesbrough on Tuesday.
Centre-back Teden Mengi hobbled off in the first half of the game – his first appearance in nearly a month – and Lee Bowyer has confirmed that the Manchester United loanee has injured his hamstring again and will be out for six weeks.
Maxime Colin returned to the bench in midweek following a thigh injury and could take Mengi's place in the back three.
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Fisher; Downes, Cabango, Naughton; Christie, Grimes, Smith, Ogbeta; Paterson; Obafemi, Piroe
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Gordon, Roberts; Graham, Sunjic, Bacuna, Gardner, Bela; Chong, Hernandez
We say: Swansea City 1-0 Birmingham City
Neither of these two sides have much to play for, so this could end up being somewhat of a drab encounter. Swansea appear to be in a slightly better place going forward, so we think that the Welsh side will just sneak a victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 47.02%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 27.64% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 0-1 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
