Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 48.1%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.