Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 35.84%. A draw had a probability of 33.8% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 30.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.4%) and 2-1 (6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (17.91%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 0-1 (14.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ponferradina would win this match.