Two mid-table teams in Serie A who are looking to put a solid run of form together will do battle on Sunday afternoon, as Udinese welcome Sassuolo to the Stadio Friuli.
The Friulians are unbeaten in each of their last three matches on home soil, while the visitors claimed an impressive 2-1 victory in their last away game against Italian giants Juventus.
Match preview
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Udinese's unwanted run without a Serie A victory was extended to eight matches when they were defeated 2-0 away against Scudetto holders Inter Milan last weekend.
The game was goalless until an eight-minute brace midway through the second half from Joaquin Correa helped the hosts secure a routine win, condemning the visitors to their fourth defeat of the campaign.
Luca Gotti's side remain in 14th place with 11 points from as many matches, and they are just three points above the relegation zone.
Udinese have only ever had fewer points at this stage of a top-flight season once in the last 26 years since their promotion to the top flight in 1995-96 – accumulating just nine points in 2018-19. A potential relegation battle could be on the cards for the Friulians if their form fails to improve quickly.
Their recent league record against Sassuolo, however, could help inspire Gotti's side to victory, as they have won three of their last four meetings against them, keeping four clean sheets in the process.
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Sassuolo's inconsistent campaign will be frustrating head coach Alessio Dionisi, as they are struggling to consolidate their place in the top half of the table and challenge for a European qualification spot.
Impressive 3-1 and 2-1 victories against Spezia and Juventus were followed by a disappointing 2-1 defeat at home against newly-promoted Empoli last weekend – their fifth league loss this term.
Despite taking the lead thanks to a Lorenzo Tonelli own goal just before half time, the visitors were able to turn the game on its head, as an 83rd-minute strike from Andrea Pinamonti was followed by a dramatic 92nd-minute penalty converted by Szymon Zurkowski.
Only Hellas Verona (nine) have lost more points from conceding goals in the final 15 minutes of matches in Serie A than Sassuolo (eight) so far this season.
Dionisi's side have slipped back down to 13th place in Serie A having accumulated 14 points from 11 matches. The Neroverdi were eight points better off at this stage of last season, the biggest points difference compared with any other Italian top-flight side from the 2020-21 campaign.
Sassuolo have failed to win any of their last six meetings against Udinese, failing to score on five occasions, but with challenging encounters against AC Milan and Napoli approaching the Neroverdi, securing three points on Sunday will be important for Dionisi's side if they are to climb the table.
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Team News
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Udinese's only injury concern is with Argentinian striker Ignacio Pussetto, who is sidelined with a muscle problem.
Gerard Deulofeu returned to the matchday squad last weekend after recovering from injury and will be in contention to start on Sunday ahead of either Beto or Issac Success.
Destiny Udogie will be hoping he can replace Jens Stryger Larsen at left-wing back, after starting the last match on the bench, while Walace should partner Jean-Victor Makengo in centre-midfield.
As for Sassuolo, Pedro Obiang remains unavailable with a heart condition, while Filip Djuricic could be out for a few more weeks with a hamstring injury.
Maxime Lopez will serve a one-match suspension this weekend following an accumulation of yellow cards, so Francesco Magnanelli is the most likely candidate to start in centre-midfield alongside Davide Frattesi.
Italy international Domenico Berardi, who has failed to score against Udinese in 12 attempts, is expected to start on the right flank, supporting central striker Gianluca Scamacca.
Udinese possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Becao, Nuytinck, Samir; Molina, Walace, Makengo, Udogie; Pereyra, Deulofeu; Success
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Consigli; Toljan, Chiriches, Ferrari, Rogerio; Frattesi, Magnanelli; Berardi, Traore, Boga; Scamacca
We say: Udinese 2-2 Sassuolo
Only one of the last six encounters between Udinese and Sassuolo has seen both teams score, but as these two sides have looked vulnerable in defence of late – conceding in each of their last five league games – goalmouth action at both ends of the pitch can be expected on Sunday.
With little to separate these two mid-table teams, an entertaining score draw could be on the cards at the Stadio Friuli.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 40.12%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 34.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Udinese would win this match.
