Santos Laguna can claim their first-ever victory in the Leagues Cup when they play their opening match on Wednesday against DC United from Audi Field.
Laguneros are winless in the Liga MX Apertura this year, losing their previous match 3-0 at home to Tigres, while the Black-and-Red won their opening Leagues Cup clash against Atlanta United, 6-5 on penalties.
Match preview
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Four matches into the new Apertura campaign, and we are seeing much of the same from Santos Laguna that we witnessed in the 2024 Clausura.
Laguna finished 15th in the 2024 Clausura table, scoring the fewest goals in that portion of the competition (15), while they have just one goal after four Apertura affairs this year, once again fewer than any side so far.
Ignacio Ambriz's men are winless in 10 consecutive matches across all competitions, with their last victory coming in March against Cruz Azul (3-0).
A 1-0 win over Queretaro in early March was the last time they won a competitive game away from home, with this team claiming just one point from their last five competitive games as the visitors (2-2 draw at Club Tijuana).
At this tournament last year, Laguna were close in both group fixtures but could not find that decisive breakthrough, losing on penalties to the Houston Dynamo (5-4) before squandering a 1-0 advantage and losing 3-2 at Orlando City.
Their only victory against an MLS opponent in this competition occurred in the 2021 quarter-finals when they defeated Orlando City 1-0 before losing by that same score against the Seattle Sounders in the semi-finals.
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It was a promising start for DC in their Leagues Cup opener, but they could not close it out, up 3-1 after 32 minutes before eventually winning in a shootout after the game ended in a 3-3 draw.
While they dropped a point in their opener by failing to win after 90 minutes, this team are now unbeaten in their last three competitive games in normal time, scoring eight goals over that stretch.
DC have yet to lose a group fixture at this tournament, finishing second in their East 2 group last year with three points.
Wednesday will be their second-ever Leagues Cup affair to take place at Audi Field, with the Black-and-Red losing their previous home game at this tournament 3-0 to Pumas.
Defensively, this side have struggled to contain opposing attacks, with Troy Lesesne's men conceding 50 goals this year, the most in the Eastern Conference of MLS and one more than they gave up when Wayne Rooney was in charge last year.
All five of their competitive victories versus Mexican opposition have taken place at home, the last one being against Chivas, also known as Guadalajara, in September 2007 when they competed in the Copa Sudamericana (2-1).
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Team News
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In their defeat versus Tigres, Santos Laguna were without Pedro Aquino and Ronaldo Prieto due to knee injuries, while Jose Juan Macias is dealing with a muscle strain.
Harold Preciado, who won the 2023 Apertura Golden Boot, has been suspended since March for alleged doping by Mexico's Anti-Doping Commission.
Preciado scored three of their four goals at the Leagues Cup last year, with their other strike coming courtesy of Raul Lopez in a defeat versus Orlando City.
Over the weekend, DC did not have Kristian Fletcher available because of a sore ankle, and Conner Antley has a torn ACL that will likely keep him on the sidelines for the remainder of the campaign.
Russell Canouse is dealing with a health condition with no clear timeline for a return, while Jackson Hopkins was back on the field this past weekend as a substitute, having previously missed time due to a back injury.
Christian Benteke put them in front after four minutes against the Five Stripes before Jared Stroud netted a brace, while Alex Bono was the hero in the shootout, stopping two Atlanta penalties to give his side two points.
Santos Laguna possible starting lineup:
Acevedo; Lorona, Nunez, Santamaria, Echeverria; Mariscal, Lopez; Medina, Fagundez, Sordo; Lozano
DC United possible starting lineup:
Bono; Herrera, Bartlett, McVey, Santos; Peltola; Stroud, Dajome; Klich; Benteke, Badji
We say: Santos Laguna 0-2 DC United
Laguna are struggling to generate chances when in possession, and we believe that containing a DC squad loaded with attacking talent will be too much for the Mexicans to handle.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos Laguna win with a probability of 46.62%. A win for DC United had a probability of 30.65% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos Laguna win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.93%) and 2-0 (6.33%). The likeliest DC United win was 1-2 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that DC United would win this match.
