Another instalment of the California Clasico takes place on Wednesday as the San Jose Earthquakes host the Los Angeles Galaxy in Leagues Cup action from PayPal Park.
In their opening match at this tournament, the Goonies defeated Guadalajara 4-3 on penalties, vaulting them into first place in the West 2 table with two points, while the Galaxy have yet to play a Leagues Cup affair this year.
Match preview
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Over 50,000 spectators took in a memorable finish at Levi's Stadium this past weekend, one which ended with the Quakes holding their nerve in the shootout.
Ian Russell's men took the lead after just six minutes but were pegged back in the 98th as they failed to win within 90 minutes for a fourth successive match across all competitions.
It may not have been three points, but it was the first points that this side had ever collected in the Leagues Cup, while they also found the back of the net for the first time in this competition.
A victory on Wednesday would ensure they make it beyond the group stage of this tournament for the first time in what will be just their second match to ever take place at PayPal Park in the Leagues Cup.
Last year, they suffered a 1-0 defeat against Tigres in their final group contest played at PayPal Park, while they lost their last two games against MLS opponents.
San Jose have not lost a competitive fixture when scoring first since the middle of May, when the Portland Timbers came back to beat them 4-2.
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It feels like forever since the Galaxy were a powerhouse side in MLS, but they are one of the teams to catch right now, leading the Western Conference with 49 points.
That is two more than their El Trafico foes, Los Angeles FC, and 35 more than their state rivals from Silicon Valley, who are at the bottom of the Western Conference standings.
Greg Vanney's men have already accumulated 13 more points in the 2024 MLS regular season compared to 2023 while scoring 50 goals this year, one fewer than a year ago.
A defeat on Wednesday would mark the first time this year that LA will have suffered successive defeats away from home versus MLS opposition after losing 2-0 to Dallas earlier this month.
Their adaptability has made them a lot more successful in 2024, with the Galaxy showing more of a willingness to sit back and absorb pressure, a contrast from the usually possession-based tactics that Vanney employs.
Los Angeles have won their last four matches against San Jose and are unbeaten in their previous six visits to PayPal Park.
Team News
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In their opening match of this tournament, San Jose were missing Daniel Munie with a knock, Carlos Akapo has a lower-body issue, Bruno Wilson is recovering from a knee injury and JT Marcinkowski is rehabilitating from a torn ACL.
Niko Tsakiris and Cruz Medina are on international duty at the Under-20 CONCACAF Championship for the USA and Mexico, respectively, with Emmanuel Ochoa also representing the Mexicans at that tournament.
Daniel made one stop, cancelling out a miss from Paul Marie, while former Quakes forward Cade Cowell also missed, allowing Vitor Costa to slot home the winning penalty for the Goonies in the shootout.
LA were without Julian Aude in their 3-2 victory over the Portland Timbers because of a knock, Dejan Joveljic will be questionable with a hamstring strain and Gaston Brugman is dealing with knee discomfort.
From their defeat against the Colorado Rapids (3-2) to that aforementioned victory over Portland, the Galaxy made two changes to their starting 11 as Martin Caceres and John Nelson came into the lineup in place of Mauricio Cuevas and Jalen Neal.
Goals from Gabriel Pec, Riqui Puig and Joseph Paintsil helped them to outlast the Timbers in a thrilling match at Dignity Health Sports Park.
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Daniel; Kikanovic, Rodrigues, Beason, Costa; Yueill, Morales; Espinoza, Lopez, Pellegrino; Ebobisse
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Yamane, Neal, Yoshida, Nelson; Delgado, Cerrillo; Pec, Puig, Fagundez; Paintsil
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 Los Angeles Galaxy
There are too many weapons for the Quakes to contain in this one, so we believe it will only be a matter of time before the Galaxy break through and take control of this game.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 40.54%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 36.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles Galaxy win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.43%) and 0-2 (5.41%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Los Angeles Galaxy in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Los Angeles Galaxy.
Joel Lefevre
