Sheriff Tiraspol will welcome Red Star Belgrade to Moldova on Tuesday evening for the second leg of their third qualifying round contest in the Champions League.
The clash is delicately poised following a 1-1 draw in the first leg last week, with Lois Diony's effort on the stroke of the interval cancelling out a 33rd-minute goal from Sheriff's Frank Castaneda.
Match preview
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Sheriff will have been pleased with their performance in the first leg last week, and Castaneda's effort in the 33rd minute has given them a serious chance of reaching the playoff round of the competition.
The Yellow-Blacks finished top of the 2020-21 Moldovan National Division, picking up 99 points from their 36 matches, which saw them qualify for the Champions League first qualifying round.
Yuriy Vernydub's side have now played five times in this season's competition, beating Teuta Durres 5-0 on aggregate before recording a 4-1 aggregate success over Alashkert in the second qualifying round.
Sheriff have never managed to advance to the group stage of the Champions League, but they did compete in the group stage of the 2017-18 Europa League, finishing third in their section.
The home side will enter Tuesday's match off the back of a thumping 7-1 win over Dinamo-Auto in their domestic league on Saturday, which has left them in fourth spot with six points from three matches.
Red Star, meanwhile, were in league action on Friday, recording a 1-0 victory over Napredak to move to the top of the division with 10 points from their opening four matches of the season.
The Red-Whites competed in last season's Europa League, progressing through Group L in second position before losing on away goals to AC Milan in the last-32 stage of the competition.
Dejan Stankovic's side also operated in the group stages of the 2019-20 Champions League, finishing fourth in Group B, and they are considered as the favourites to advance from this tie into the playoff round.
Red Star actually suffered a 2-1 defeat to Kairat in the first leg of their second qualifying round fixture but recorded a 5-0 victory in the reverse match to advance, and the club's supporters will be hoping that they can put in a similar performance in the second leg of the third qualifying round.
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Team News
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Sheriff hit seven goals in their domestic fixture with Dinamo-Auto on Saturday and should therefore enter this match full of confidence, with Vernydub preparing to send an attacking side onto the field.
Captain Castaneda was on the scoresheet in the first leg and should again support Adama Traore and Momo Yansane in the final third, with Dimitris Kolovos operating in an attacking midfield position.
Unless there are any late fitness concerns, Sheriff could start with the same XI that took to the field in the first leg, meaning another spot in the middle of the park for Sebastien Thill.
As for Red Star, Mirko Ivanic dropped down to the bench for Friday's league fixture with Napredak but is expected to be back in the starting XI for Tuesday's European contest.
Diony is a certainty to start in the final third of the field, with Filippo Falco and Aleksandar Katai in support, but there will have to be a change in the middle of the park.
Indeed, Guelor Kanga was shown a red card just before the hour of the first leg courtesy of picking up a second yellow card, and there could now be a spot in midfield for Nenad Krsticic.
Sheriff Tiraspol possible starting lineup:
Athanasiadis; Cristiano, Arboleda, Dulanto, Julien; Thill, Addo; Traore, Kolovos, Castaneda; Yansane
Red Star Belgrade possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Gobeljic, Pankov, Dragovic, Rodic; Krsticic, Sanogo; Falco, Ivanic, Katai; Diony
We say: Sheriff Tiraspol 1-2 Red Star Belgrade (Red Star 3-2 on aggregate)
Sheriff demonstrated in the first leg that they are more than capable of matching Red Star, and it is set to be a fascinating battle in the second leg. We are expecting a tight contest once again but have just sided with Red Star to get the job done, recording a 2-1 win on the night to progress to the playoff round.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheriff Tiraspol win with a probability of 48.62%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheriff Tiraspol win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sheriff Tiraspol would win this match.
