Two sides in desperate need of three points for entirely different reasons prepare for battle on Thursday night as Real Valladolid play host to Villarreal in La Liga.
The hosts' survival hopes were dealt a blow with a crushing 3-0 defeat to Valencia last time out, while Villarreal's Europa League aspirations were damaged by a 4-2 loss to Celta Vigo.
Match preview
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With only four points separating 17th-placed Real Valladolid from bottom-of-the-table Eibar - who are starting to hit a rich vein of form - the fight to avoid demotion to the Segunda Division could hardly be more gripping.
Valladolid nearly made it to the break level with an out-of-sorts Valencia side on Sunday, but Moi Gomez struck on the stroke of half time before doubling his tally in the 48th minute, and Thierry Correia added gloss to the scoreline late on to condemn Sergio Gonzalez's side to another demoralising defeat.
Depending on what happens in Elche and Huesca's games earlier in the week, Valladolid could find themselves below the dreaded dotted line by the time Thursday rolls around, and their nine-game winless run cannot come to an end soon enough.
Mid-table Levante are the only other team in the division without a win to boast from any of their last five matches, and being able to show off just one win from their last 18 La Liga outings is hardly cause for optimism for Valladolid, who face another pair of daunting fixtures with Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid before time is up.
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It seems inconceivable to imagine Europa League specialist Unai Emery not walking out to the continental theme next season, but a recent downturn in league fortunes means that Villarreal are running the risk of missing out on a top-six finish.
Villarreal could still dine at the top table in Europe should they somehow manage to overcome Manchester United in the Europa League final, but the Yellow Submarine cannot solely rely on continental success should they be sunk by a rampant Red Devils contingent.
Two red cards to substitutes Mario Gaspar and Geronimo Rulli at the end of the first half against Celta Vigo - by which point Villarreal were controversially 2-1 down - epitomised a truly inexplicable first 45 minutes at Estadio de la Ceramica, and second-half strikes from Celta duo Brais Mendez and Augusto Solari condemned Emery's side to their third defeat in four La Liga games.
The seventh-placed Yellow Submarine currently sit two points behind Real Betis in sixth and may have to make do with a spot in the Conference League unless their rivals slip up, especially with Emery's men not expected to take six points from battles with Sevilla or Real Madrid in their final two games.
Villarreal secured a comfortable 2-0 win when the two sides met earlier in the campaign, and the Yellow Submarine have navigated their last four games unbeaten against Real Valladolid since a 1-0 defeat in the 2018-19 season.
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Team News
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Valladolid continue to battle against the drop without Fabian Orellana (muscle) or Raul Garcia (knee), but changes could be on the cards following a dismal outing at Valencia.
Jota lasted just 58 minutes on Sunday before being replaced by Pablo Hervias, and the latter could get the nod as Oscar Plano continues on the opposite side of the attack.
Villarreal will be unable to call upon Rulli or Gaspar following their red cards in the defeat to Celta, with the latter's absence allowing Ruben Pena to continue on the right-hand side of defence.
Samuel Chukwueze's quadriceps injury against Arsenal was as serious as it looked and he is facing a race to be fit for the Europa League final, and he is joined on the sidelines by Vicente Iborra and Tottenham Hotspur loanee Juan Foyth, who nurse knee and hamstring issues respectively.
Gerard Moreno will surely be reinstated to the first XI here after netting as a substitute in the defeat to Celta, while Pau Torres and Alfonso Pedraza will eye returns to the rearguard.
Real Valladolid possible starting lineup:
Masip; Janko, Sanchez, El Yamiq, Olaza; Fernandez, Alcaraz, Mesa; Hervias, Weissman, Plano
Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Asenjo; Pena, Albiol, Torres, Pedraza; Trigueros, Capoue, Parejo, Pino; Alcacer, Moreno
We say: Real Valladolid 1-2 Villarreal
Neither Real Valladolid nor Villarreal come into this match with the wind in their sails, and both sides may view this clash as their last opportunity to post a win on the board before their taxing final games.
A well-rested duo of Moreno and Paco Alcacer should have no trouble breaking down the hosts' leaky defence, though, and we expect Villarreal to boost their European bid at the expense of Valladolid's survival hopes.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 61.82%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 16.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.59%) and 1-2 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.4%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 1-0 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
