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Real Madrid logo
La Liga | Gameweek 38
May 22, 2021 at 5pm UK
Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Villarreal logo

Real Madrid
2 - 1
Villarreal

Benzema (87'), Modric (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Pino (20')

Preview: Real Madrid vs. Villarreal - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Real Madrid and Villarreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Real Madrid will be hoping that a win over Villarreal on Saturday evening is enough to see them finish ahead of Atletico Madrid at the top of La Liga.

Los Blancos are currently second in the table, two points behind leaders Atletico, while Villarreal sit seventh, one point behind fifth-placed Real Sociedad, meaning that both sides have plenty to play for in Madrid.


Match preview

Real Madrid's Nacho celebrates scoring against Athletic Bilbao in La Liga on May 16, 2021© Reuters

Real Madrid have kept to their end of the bargain in terms of the title race, with last weekend's 1-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao ensuring that they are very much in the argument heading into the final set of fixtures.

It is relatively simple for Los Blancos – they must win to stand any chance of retaining the title. Indeed, a victory, coupled with either an Atletico draw or a defeat against Real Valladolid, would see them lift the trophy.

Atletico are in the driving seat, though, as the Red and Whites know that a victory would see them finish at the summit regardless of what happens between Real Madrid and Villarreal in the Spanish capital.

Zinedine Zidane's side are actually unbeaten in the league since the end of January, but the recent draws with Getafe, Real Betis and Sevilla have ultimately cost them the chance to be at the top of the table.

Real Madrid have the best away record in La Liga this term, but they have dropped points in six of their 18 league matches at home and will certainly be wary of the threat that a dangerous Villarreal side could provide.

Villarreal's Manu Trigueros celebrates scoring against Arsenal in the Europa League on April 29, 2021© Reuters

Villarreal will face Manchester United in the Europa League final next Wednesday, but the Yellow Submarine cannot afford to take their eye off the ball in the league, as fifth position is still very much open.

Unai Emery's side have been excellent in their last two league matches, beating Valladolid 2-0 on May 13 before thumping Sevilla 4-0 last time out, with Carlos Bacca scoring three times against the top-four side.

As it stands, El Submarino Amarillo are seventh in the table, level on points with sixth-placed Real Betis and one point behind fifth-placed Real Sociedad. There is a chance that a win for Villarreal would bring them fifth, although they will still be relying on results elsewhere.

Emery's team can, of course, still qualify for next season's Champions League, but they will need to beat Man United, who are currently enduring a bad run of form, in the Europa League final.

The Yellow Submarine held Real Madrid to a 1-1 draw in the reverse match earlier this season, while they have a recent away league victory over Los Blancos to their name, having run out 1-0 winners at the Bernabeu in January 2018.

Real Madrid La Liga form:
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W

Real Madrid form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W

Villarreal La Liga form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

Villarreal form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Real Madrid's Sergio Ramos has a stretch on January 14, 2021© Reuters

Real Madrid will be without the services of Ferland Mendy, Dani Carvajal, Eden Hazard and Lucas Vazquez through injury, but Raphael Varane has trained after recovering from a muscular problem, and the France international is likely to be in the starting XI this weekend.

Sergio Ramos has also made huge steps forward in his recovery, but it seems more likely that the Spaniard will be on the bench due to a troublesome hamstring problem.

Toni Kroos, meanwhile, is out with coronavirus, meaning that Federico Valverde, Casemiro and Luka Modric should line up as the midfield three. Karim Benzema is a certainty in the final third, and he could be flanked by Vinicius Junior and Marco Asensio, with Rodrygo on the bench.

As for Villarreal, Samuel Chukwueze, Juan Foyth and Vicente Iborra are still on the sidelines through injury, but Etienne Capoue, Mario Gaspar and Geronimo Rulli are available following suspensions.

Head coach Emery is expected to make changes from the side that started against Sevilla, with Francis Coquelin, Capoue, Paco Alcacer and Alfonso Pedraza potentially coming into the side.

Gerard Moreno could be rested ahead of the Europa League final, but the likes of Pau Torres and Dani Parejo are likely to be handed starting roles for the Yellow Submarine.

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Odriozola, Varane, Militao, Nacho; Valverde, Casemiro, Modric; Vinicius, Benzema, Asensio

Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Asenjo; Gaspar, Albiol, Torres, Pedraza; Coquelin, Capoue, Parejo; Gomez, Bacca, Alcacer


SM words green background

We say: Real Madrid 2-1 Villarreal

Villarreal are a team to be taken extremely seriously at this level of football, but the Yellow Submarine will have one eye on the Europa League final. We are expecting a tight match in the Spanish capital but expect Zidane's side to secure all three points, which could yet be enough to win the title.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 38.52%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 35.06% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Real Madrid
79.3%
Draw
12.1%
Villarreal
8.6%
198
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Villarreal's Pau Torres pictured in March 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona12110140112933
2Real Madrid1173121111024
3Atletico MadridAtletico126511871123
4Villarreal116322019121
5Osasuna126331716121
6Athletic Bilbao125431812619
7Real BetisBetis125431210219
8Mallorca12534109118
9Rayo Vallecano114431210216
10Celta Vigo125161820-216
11Real Sociedad124351010015
12GironaGirona124351517-215
13Sevilla124351217-515
14AlavesAlaves124171419-513
15Leganes122551216-411
16Getafe12174810-210
17Espanyol123181122-1110
18Las PalmasLas Palmas122371321-89
19Real ValladolidValladolid12228924-158
20Valencia11146817-97


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