Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 55.86%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 21.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.86%) and 0-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-0 (5.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.