Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 42.84%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 27.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.78%) and 2-1 (7.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.