Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Vitoria de Setubal had a probability of 31.04% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Vitoria de Setubal win was 0-1 (10.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.