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Premier League | Gameweek 17
Mar 13, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Vitality Stadium
Luton Town

Bournemouth
4 - 3
Luton

Solanke (50'), Zabarnyi (62'), Semenyo (64', 83')
Smith (69')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Chong (9'), Ogbene (31'), Barkley (45+1')
Clark (30'), Ogbene (66')

The Match

Match Report

Bournemouth astonishingly fight back from three goals down to beat Luton Town 4-3 in the Premier League at the Vitality Stadium.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Bournemouth and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 57.33%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.96%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-2 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bournemouth would win this match.

Result
BournemouthDrawLuton Town
57.33% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03) 21.57% (0.038 0.04) 21.1% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 58.25% (-0.131 -0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.1% (-0.172 -0.17)39.9% (0.178 0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.74% (-0.17899999999999 -0.18)62.26% (0.185 0.19)
Bournemouth Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.27% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)13.73% (0.071 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.01% (-0.136 -0.14)41% (0.142 0.14)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.52% (-0.096999999999994 -0.1)32.48% (0.103 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.99% (-0.11 -0.11)69.01% (0.116 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Bournemouth 57.33%
    Luton Town 21.1%
    Draw 21.57%
BournemouthDrawLuton Town
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-0 @ 8.86% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-0 @ 8.79% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.54% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.82% (0.0029999999999992 0)
3-2 @ 3.68% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-1 @ 3.25% (-0.015 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.89% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.83% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.29% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.15% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 57.33%
1-1 @ 9.96% (0.029 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.56% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.46% (0.037 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.38% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 21.57%
1-2 @ 5.6% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 5.02% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
0-2 @ 2.82% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.1% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 2.08% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.06%
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 21.1%

How you voted: Bournemouth vs Luton

Bournemouth
60.7%
Draw
24.7%
Luton Town
14.6%
356
Head to Head
Jan 15, 2022 12.30pm
Gameweek 27
Luton
3-2
Bournemouth
Kelly (30' og.), Campbell (42'), Naismith (90+6')
Marcondes (51'), Rogers (78')
Lerma (81'), Christie (89')
Sep 25, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 9
Bournemouth
2-1
Luton
Billing (17'), Solanke (31')
Pearson (49'), Lowe (90+2')
Burke (64')
Jan 16, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 24
Bournemouth
0-1
Luton

Billing (90+3')
Lerma (26')
Dewsbury-Hall (67')
Pearson (90+2'), Hylton (90+6')
Dec 19, 2020 3pm
Jan 4, 2020 5.31pm
Third Round
Bournemouth
4-0
Luton
Billing (8', 79'), Wilson (67'), Solanke (82')
Billing (41')

Jones (41')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool108111961325
2Manchester CityMan City1072121111023
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest10541147719
4Chelsea105322012818
5Arsenal105321711618
6Aston Villa105321715218
7Tottenham HotspurSpurs1051422111116
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton104421714316
9Fulham104331413115
10Bournemouth104331312115
11Newcastle UnitedNewcastle104331010015
12Brentford104151920-113
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd10334912-312
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham103251319-611
15Leicester CityLeicester102441418-410
16Everton102351017-79
17Crystal Palace10145813-57
18Ipswich TownIpswich100551021-115
19Southampton10118719-124
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves100371427-133


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