After being knocked out of the U.S. Open Cup in midweek, Philadelphia Union will be looking to get back to winning ways when they host New York Red Bulls on Sunday.
It is a top-of-the-table clash between the two teams with just a point separating them in the Major League Soccer Eastern Conference, and the visitors would find themselves climbing into first place with a victory.
Match preview
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Philadelphia Union have been dominant in the MLS so far this season, having only lost one of their opening 10 matches to this point.
However, The U were beaten in midweek when they faced Orlando City in the U.S. Open Cup after conceding two goals in just five minutes in the second half.
Ercan Kara and Andres Perea both found the back of the net in the match, and despite Stuart Findlay scoring later on in the game, Philadelphia were not able to draw level.
The loss actually added to what has been a difficult period for Jim Curtin's team, as they have now gone five matches without a victory in all competitions.
That period has seen them beaten by Toronto, and they followed that up with a trio of draws which has allowed their opponents on Sunday to close the gap in the league.
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New York Red Bulls currently find themselves just a single point behind Philadelphia, which could lead to them being the league leaders if they can secure a victory this weekend.
The Red Bulls Metro head into the game on the back of a win in the U.S. Open Cup, as they secured their place in the next round by knocking out DC United.
Goals from Luquinhas, John Tolkin and Zachary Ryan helped earn the 3-0 victory, which quickly put the team back on track after drawing against Portland Timbers in their previous outing.
The cup game summed up how Gerhard Struber's team have kickstarted the season, as no other outfit in the Eastern Conference has conceded fewer goals, while only one has scored more.
New York Red Bulls will also head into this one with plenty of confidence due to the fact they are undefeated away from home so far, having won all five of their matches.
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Team News
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For the second game in a row Sergio Santos was able to make an appearance as a substitute as the Brazilian continues to make his way back to full fitness.
The U made seven changes for the U.S. Open Cup defeat against Orlando City in order to keep the squad fresh, and the chances are high that Curtin will ring in the alterations once again.
After finding the back of the net off the bench in their previous outing, Ryan could find himself in contention of featuring from the first whistle this weekend for New York Red Bulls.
The visitors do have several injury issues to deal with at the moment though with Andres Reyes having a foot problem, Serge Ngoma has a hamstring issue, and Caden Clark is suffering with his knee.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Harriel, Glesnes, Elliott, Wagner; Martinez, Flach, Bedoya, Gazdag; Carranza, Burke
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Edwards, Nealis, Long; Tolkin, Amaya, Casseres, D. Nealis; Morgan, Luquinhas; Barlow
We say: Philadelphia Union 1-2 New York Red Bulls
This is bound to be a close game due to the fact they are the two top teams in the MLS Eastern Conference right now, which is something that should lead to a closely-fought encounter.
However, because the U have been struggling with their performances as of late, the chances are that New York Red Bulls will have enough to take all three points from this one.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 39.27%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 32.65% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (10.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
