After being minutes away from a potential MLS Cup Final a year ago, the Philadelphia Union begin the 2022 regular season by hosting Minnesota United on Saturday at Subaru Park.
Philly have finished in a top-three position over their previous three Eastern Conference campaigns, while The Loons ended 2021 in fifth out west but were eliminated in the opening round of the playoffs, 3-1, by the Portland Timbers.
Match preview
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When it looked like Jim Curtin and his side were finally going to break through, some unforeseen circumstances ended their hope of capturing that elusive first MLS Cup.
Missing nine regulars due to COVID is not something that they could have planned for on the eve of their Eastern Conference Final defeat to New York City FC (2-1), but months later, we will see what kind of mettle this group will show this year.
It is fair to say that because of the way 2021 ended, we would be inclined to give this team an incomplete grade, which might be the motivation that they need heading into this season, to prove to the critics that they are ready to reach the pinnacle of MLS soccer.
Philadelphia were expected to take a step back last season, and at times it looked as though they would, but they ended up surprising many people down the stretch.
Their academy products have shown plenty of promise and are likely to get lots of minutes throughout the regular season, a credit to this entire franchise and how they have been able to build a solid foundation of talent and winning.
There are several pundits out there who believe that a prolific striker may be all that they need to reach the top at long last, but with the departure of their leading goalscorer from a year ago, Kacper Przybylko, plenty of questions will be asked of their attack heading into the season opener.
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The opening four games of 2021 could not have gone much worse for Adrian Heath and Minnesota, who lost each of those encounters and looked ordinary at best.
Bringing in Tyler Miller dramatically changed their fortunes, as the American keeper quickly became one of last season's big stories, helping his team make the postseason.
For a side with many players who have been together for a long time, there is an unusual amount of unpredictability surrounding The Loons heading into 2022.
Despite possessing what appears to be on paper a solid attacking presence, they were rarely potent in the final third, and that lack of quality came back to bite them in the playoffs.
They had their share of opportunities last year, though they rarely looked dangerous or capable of breaking a game open, which may need to improve if they are to return to the postseason.
Depth in attacking midfield and up front could determine how well they fare, as they were heavily dependent on a couple of players to carry them through quite often last year.
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Team News
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Jamiro Monteiro joined the San Jose Earthquakes over the offseason, while Danish striker Mikael Uhre will be counted on to score a lot in Philly this year, having signed for a record deal from Brondby, where he won the Golden Boot in the Danish top flight last season.
Julian Carranza is the other new addition to this team, moving on loan from Inter Miami to the City of Brotherly Love, while Paxten Aaronson will be one player to watch in midfield.
Cory Burke was among the top keepers in the league last season and kept them in many games, while Kai Wagner chipped in with four assists and Daniel Gazdag scored five goals.
With Jan Gregus off to San Jose, that will put a lot of pressure on Minnesota midfielders Wil Trapp, newcomer Kervin Arriaga and Hassani Dotson to pick up the slack.
Veteran midfielder Osvaldo Alonso, an inspirational figure, left after three seasons in town, while Thomas Chacon is also out, signing a loan deal with Liverpool in the Uruguayan Primera Division.
Luis Amarilla will hope to make a triumphant return to Minnesota, a place where he featured on loan in 2020, while the club will be counting on Bongokuhle Hlongwane to bring another dimension to the frontline and take some pressure off Robin Lod.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Wagner, Glesnes, Elliott, Mbaizo; Flach, Martinez, Bedoya; Uhre, Gazdag, Carranza
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Miller; Gasper, Dibassy, Boxall, Metanire; Dotson, Trapp; Fragapane, Reynoso, Lod; Hunou
We say: Philadelphia Union 2-0 Minnesota United
The Union may not be that much better on paper, but they have enough experience and always seem to find ways to win, and we expect that they will do that on Saturday.
Minnesota do not appear to have improved from 2021, and their lack of depth up high could allow the Union to key on Lod, while the rest of the team do not possess the same kind of quality as the Finnish attacking midfielder.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 47.71%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Minnesota United had a probability of 26.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.39%), while for a Minnesota United win it was 0-1 (8.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
