San Lorenzo can qualify for the knockout stage of the 2024 Copa Libertadores by avoiding defeat on Thursday against Palmeiras at Allianz Parque.
The three-time winners of this competition locked up first place in Group F thanks to a 2-1 victory over Independiente del Valle, while a 3-2 victory at home to Liverpool has the Argentines well positioned to advance, currently three points above both Liverpool and Independiente del Valle for second.
Match preview
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Seeing Palmeiras dominate the group phase of this tournament is something that we have come to expect, and that has been the case once again this year.
The Sao Paulo club will finish top of their group for an eighth consecutive time in this competition, having won 17 of their previous 18 group contests.
A victory or draw on Thursday would mark the second time in the previous three editions of this tournament that Abel Ferreira's men finish the Libertadores group stage unbeaten.
Palestra have won their last nine group fixtures in this competition at Allianz Parque by a combined margin of 27 goals (34-7).
Unusually, Verdao have had to come from behind more often than we are used to seeing in this phase of the tournament, conceding the opening goal on three occasions but still claiming seven points when doing so.
Their only previous home fixture versus San Lorenzo at the Copa Libertadores yielded a 1-0 victory for Palmeiras, who have only lost one group game at Allianz Parque against an Argentine opponent in this competition (4-3 against Defensa y Justicia in 2021).
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It is not how you start but how you finish, and that famous saying can be used to describe the San Lorenzo group form in this competition.
El Ciclon claimed just a single point from their first three group contests but have a chance on Thursday to win three successive matches in this phase of the tournament for the first time since 2019.
Under interim co-coaches Leandro Romagnoli and Gonzalo Prosperi, this side have suffered just one defeat since the beginning of May (1-0 versus Deportivo Riestra).
Should they lose this match, a Liverpool victory would likely keep their Libertadores journey alive, as the Uruguayans possess a goal differential of -7, while San Lorenzo are at zero and Independiente del Valle sit at -2.
Should San Lorenzo advance, it would mark the first time the club have made the knockout stage of this tournament since 2019, though the Boedo-based club have qualified for the last 16 in each of their previous two group stage appearances.
Los Matadores have not won a Libertadores group fixture away from home since 2017 (3-0 over Athletico Paranaense), and they have failed to score in their last five encounters as the visitors in this stage of the competition.
Team News
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A knee injury could prevent Bruno Rodrigues from featuring in this encounter for Palmeiras, while Mayke, Jose Manuel Lopez and Endrick are all eligible to play despite each receiving yellow card suspensions recently in the Brasileiro Serie A.
Ferreira made three changes to his starting 11 from matchday four to five, as Richard Rios, Ze Rafael, and Lopez replaced Anibal Moreno, Gabriel Menino and Raphael Veiga.
Rios and captain Gustavo Gomez found the back of the net in their previous Libertadores clash, their first and second, respectively, at this tournament.
Facundo Altamirano is not expected to return to the San Lorenzo fold until early June because of a hamstring strain, while Jhohan Romana sat out of their previous Libertadores fixture through suspension.
Gonzalo Lujan took his place in the starting 11 on matchday five, with the other changes being Gaston Gomez and Diego Herazo coming in for Altamirano and Adam Bareiro, respectively.
Goals from Ivan Leguizamon, Alexis Cuello and Gaston Campi helped propel Los Santos to a narrow matchday five triumph earlier this month.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Gomez, Cerqueira, Piquerez; Rios, Ze Rafael; Jhon, Lazaro; Dudu, Endrick
San Lorenzo possible starting lineup:
Gomez; Giay, Lujan, Campi, Braida; Ferreira, Remedi; Leguizamon, Barrios, Cuello; Bareiro
We say: Palmeiras 2-0 San Lorenzo
Being in San Lorenzo's position can be dangerous, as they may be rather passive and sit back to try and avoid defeat, which we believe will suit the Brazilians just fine.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
