The quarter-finals of the 2023 Copa Libertadores will conclude this week, with Olimpia taking on Fluminense in the second leg at Estadio Defensores del Chaco on Friday.
Fluminense secured a 2-0 lead in the first leg and are on the verge of getting their revenge over the opponent that knocked them out in qualifying for this competition last season.
Match preview
© Reuters
Olimpia will need a complete turnaround from the performance they managed last week, and most neutrals would likely agree that they are lucky to only be two goals down and still alive in the tie.
Francisco Arce's side managed a mere 30% possession across the 90 minutes and recorded just four shots on goal with none on target, while their opponents piled the pressure with 18 attempts at goal.
However, while they may be facing an uphill battle here, the hosts cannot be completely ruled out as they have been very good on their home patch in this competition, as they showed in the last round when they overturned a 1-0 first leg deficit against Flamengo to win the tie 3-2 on aggregate.
Adding to their belief, El Decano were 3-1 down after the first leg against this opponent in last year's second round of qualifying but managed to come back to win 2-0 at this venue and went on to win the tie after an intense penalty shootout.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, Fluminense would certainly not have forgotten about that loss and will know better than most that their opponents are a different beast on their home patch and will expect them to come flying out the blocks here in search of an early goal.
Fernando Diniz's side controlled the first leg despite only getting two goals and will come into this match with good momentum, unbeaten in their last three matches, including two wins and a draw against Athletico Paranaense over the weekend.
The Big Flu finished atop Group D in the round-robin stages of this competition with 10 points in their six matches before beating Argentinos Juniors 3-1 on aggregate in the round of 16.
However, of their four away matches in this competition, the visitors only won one, which was over Sporting Cristal at the start of the competition, and have failed to win any of their last 11 on the road in all competitions heading into this fixture.
While they will be desperate to get one over Olimpia, Fluminense cannot afford to concede an early goal in this match, though their opponents have scored in each of their last 12 home games, and hoping to shut them out for 90 minutes could be a risky strategy.
Team News
© Reuters
Gaston Olveira has been ruled out until November with a fracture in his forearm, meaning that Juan Espinola will continue in goal for the hosts in this one.
In defence, Luis Caceres (torn ligament) and Saul Salcedo (cruciate ligament rupture) have not featured as yet this season and are not expected to return for a while longer.
Marcelo has been flagged as a doubt as he is still recovering from a thigh injury, which could mean that Diogo Barbosa will continue in the left-back position for the visitors.
Jorge (cruciate ligament rupture) and Alexsander (knee) are both ruled out of the match through injury, while Vitor Mendes is still suspended on suspicion of match-fixing.
Olimpia possible starting lineup:
Espinola; Romana, Barreto, Gamarra; Silva, Quintana, Cardozo, Martinez, Torres; Fernandez, Gonzalez
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Fabio; Xavier, Marlon, Nino, Barbosa; Andre, Keno, Ganso, Arias, Cano; Kennedy
We say: Olimpia 2-1 Fluminense
Despite dominating the first leg, it is difficult to overlook the visitors away record, which shows no wins in their last 11 matches on the road. Fluminense have to get a goal in this match to give themselves some breathing room, and while they may manage to qualify for the next round, we feel they might lose this match.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Devesh Jaganath
