Following a disappointing end to their CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) campaign, New York City FC return to action in Major League Soccer on Sunday, hosting Real Salt Lake at Yankee Stadium.
The Pigeons are winless in five consecutive games in all competitions, while Claret and Cobalt sit a point behind Los Angeles FC for the top spot in the Western Conference.
Match preview
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The championship partying may be over for New York, although it appears that the reigning MLS Cup champions are still suffering from a hangover, earning a mere four points after five domestic fixtures.
They threw everything possible at the Seattle Sounders in the second leg of that CCL semi-final on Wednesday, but unfortunately, NYCFC could only put one effort past goalkeeper Stefan Frei, despite firing eight shots on target.
There are plenty of quality individuals on this team with the skill, experience and creativity to retain the title, but their finishing has let them down with three goals despite firing 21 shots on target against the Rave Green (twice) and Toronto.
Coming into this contest, manager Ronny Deila says that his players need to start doing the dirty work and finding space in what can be a congested midfield.
NYCFC were one of the most dynamic attacking units in their title-winning campaign, finishing that regular season with the second-most goals in the Eastern Conference (56), so it has to be somewhat surprising to see them with the joint-fewest tallies so far in 2022.
As successful as this team have been historically in the regular season, missing the playoffs only once, they have not fared well versus RSL, losing four of their five encounters against them, with their only victory coming in 2018 (4-0).
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This month, Pablo Mastroeni has seen his RSL squad start brightly in back-to-back encounters, though they only have two points to show for it.
Last Saturday, Claret and Cobalt squandered two leads against Toronto as the team could not maintain their focus in the latter stages, losing possession in their end of the field as Jayden Nelson caught goalkeeper Zac MacMath cheating off his line, firing home the equaliser in the 79th minute.
We have seen several individuals step up and produce something brilliant for Salk Lake this season, and the hope moving forward is that this group will put together a more robust and consistent collective effort for 90 minutes.
They have gone three games without scoring a second-half goal, while conceding once in the final 45 minutes in each of those encounters.
One element that has been evident within this group since Mastroeni replaced the departed Freddy Juarez is that these players have a ton of resolve and fight, which is a credit to their current manager, who has emphasised the importance of motivating his team regularly.
While acknowledging that the game's tactics are essential, Mastroeni seems to concentrate a lot on the human aspect and how paramount it is for his team to perform from, as he put it, a great place of feeling.
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Team News
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Santiago Rodriguez had the only goal for the Pigeons in their CCL draw (1-1) at home to Seattle on Wednesday as Thiago Andrade collected an assist on that play and Sean Johnson made five saves.
New York are still looking for some production out of Valentin Castellanos, as the Golden Boot winner last year has failed to score domestically in this campaign, while tthe Pigeons were snakebit in the final 25 minutes of their encounter earlier this week, as Stefan Frei denied Thiago Martins off a header and then robbed Talles Magno on a pair of occasions to preserve the draw.
Anton Tinnerholm is out with an Achilles tendon issue, and Maxime Chanot will not be available because of an upper-body injury.
RSL captain Damir Kreilach returned to the lineup last weekend for the first time since their season-opening draw versus the Houston Dynamo (0-0), scoring on a brilliant strike in the first half, while Justin Meram put home his first of the campaign.
Zack Farnsworth missed their match versus the Reds with a right ankle issue, Justen Glad and Jasper Loeffelsend have hamstring problems and David Ochoa is out due to tightness in his right quad.
Bret Halsey was unavailable last Saturday with an ankle injury, while Erik Holt has a problem with his left foot.
Johan Kappelhof is out with tightness in his right calf, and Jonathan Menendez might not be fully recovered from his adductor injury.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Gray, Martins, Callens, Amundsen; Parks, Morales; Moralez, Rodriguez, Magno; Castellanos
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
MacMath; Herrera, Orozco, Silva, Schmitt; Ruiz, Luiz; Rubin, Kreilach, Meram; Wood
We say: New York City FC 2-1 Real Salt Lake
Earlier this week, we saw the New York team we all expected at the beginning of this campaign, looking dominant towards the end of that game, and although the results have not gone their way lately, it seems like a matter of time before some of those quality chances go in.
RSL have held their own despite missing many regular starters this year, but they seem to invite more pressure into their box, and we anticipate they will have problems containing a frustrated, yet still potent New York squad.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 66.55%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 14.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.99%), while for a Real Salt Lake win it was 0-1 (4.11%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
