We said: Montpellier HSC 1-0 Reims
While Montpellier have fared well enough on home soil this term, Reims have been unable to make much of an impact on the road - winning just four of 16 away matches and scoring at a rate of less than one goal per game.
With little to divide them in terms of form or position in the Ligue 1 pecking order, that advantage could be the deciding factor which sees the home side end their winless run against Sunday's visitors.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 45.05%. A win for Reims had a probability of 28.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Reims win was 0-1 (9.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.