Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 41.35%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 33.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.