Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.