Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.09%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 1-0 (10.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.