Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cambridge United win with a probability of 36.95%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 36.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cambridge United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (6.3%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (9.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cambridge United would win this match.