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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 39.98%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 35.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.25%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
Result | ||
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Notts County |
39.98% ( 0.01) | 24.81% ( -0.01) | 35.21% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 58.26% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.07% ( 0.03) | 44.93% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.71% ( 0.03) | 67.29% ( -0.03) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.59% ( 0.02) | 22.41% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.08% ( 0.03) | 55.92% ( -0.03) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.08% ( 0.01) | 24.92% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.45% ( 0.02) | 59.55% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Notts County |
2-1 @ 8.68% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.35% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.25% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.33% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.12% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.62% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.17% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 2.34% Total : 39.98% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.03% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.39% ( 0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.8% | 1-2 @ 8.06% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.76% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.39% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.74% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.79% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.5% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.3% 2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 2.71% Total : 35.22% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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