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Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 40
Mar 23, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Stevenage

Carlisle
2 - 2
Stevenage

Butterworth (13', 65')
Charters (45+2'), Neal (67'), Butterworth (72'), Lewis (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
MacDonald (82' pen.), Vancooten (90+6')
Freeman (29'), Roberts (39')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Stevenage, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Shrewsbury 1-0 Carlisle
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Stevenage 0-1 Leyton Orient
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

We said: Carlisle United 1-1 Stevenage

Set to be supported by a bumper crowd at Brunton Park, Carlisle will be desperate to return to winning ways on Saturday afternoon against Stevenage. The Boro are without their leading marksman on Saturday, and we reckon that their dreams of reaching the playoffs will take another blow in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 58.52%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 18.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.21%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawStevenage
18.21% (-0.395 -0.4) 23.27% (-0.367 -0.37) 58.52% (0.762 0.76)
Both teams to score 47.94% (0.396 0.4)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.76% (0.887 0.89)51.24% (-0.887 -0.89)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.92% (0.771 0.77)73.08% (-0.77200000000001 -0.77)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.91% (0.058999999999997 0.06)42.09% (-0.061 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.49% (0.050999999999998 0.05)78.51% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Stevenage Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.77% (0.596 0.6)17.23% (-0.597 -0.6)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.47% (1.039 1.04)47.52% (-1.039 -1.04)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 18.21%
    Stevenage 58.51%
    Draw 23.26%
Carlisle UnitedDrawStevenage
1-0 @ 6.28% (-0.216 -0.22)
2-1 @ 4.78% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-0 @ 2.72% (-0.089 -0.09)
3-1 @ 1.38% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.21% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 18.21%
1-1 @ 11.03% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-0 @ 7.25% (-0.261 -0.26)
2-2 @ 4.2% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 23.26%
0-1 @ 12.75% (-0.2 -0.2)
0-2 @ 11.21% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
1-2 @ 9.7% (0.051 0.05)
0-3 @ 6.57% (0.15 0.15)
1-3 @ 5.69% (0.139 0.14)
0-4 @ 2.89% (0.121 0.12)
1-4 @ 2.5% (0.108 0.11)
2-3 @ 2.46% (0.064 0.06)
2-4 @ 1.08% (0.048 0.05)
0-5 @ 1.02% (0.061 0.06)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 58.51%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Stevenage

Carlisle United
Draw
Stevenage
Carlisle United
14.5%
Draw
36.4%
Stevenage
49.1%
55
Head to Head
Sep 9, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 7
Stevenage
2-2
Carlisle
Reid (15', 74')
McNeill (37'), Roberts (72')
Maguire (20'), Garner (90')
Gibson (31'), Guy (83')
Mar 18, 2023 3pm
Aug 20, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 5
Stevenage
2-1
Carlisle
Smith (16'), Clark (42')
Norris (89'), Ashby-Hammond (90+2')
Dennis (45+2')
Harris (69')
Apr 30, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 45
Carlisle
2-1
Stevenage
Riley (52'), Alessandra (63')
Norris (88' pen.)
Taylor (33')
Dec 11, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 21
Stevenage
0-2
Carlisle

Wildin (72')
Mellish (45'), Gibson (65' pen.)
Mellor (7')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham35257358233582
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe351911561332868
3Wrexham36208850302068
4Charlton AthleticCharlton36189947311663
5Stockport CountyStockport361711852341862
6Bolton WanderersBolton36186125954560
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield361771247331458
8Reading361610105145658
9Leyton Orient361651551371453
10Barnsley36157145051-152
11Blackpool36121595448651
12Stevenage36139143437-348
13Lincoln CityLincoln361210144845346
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham35128153941-244
15Wigan AthleticWigan351110143234-243
16Exeter CityExeter35127163950-1143
17Bristol Rovers36126183955-1642
18Mansfield TownMansfield36118174150-941
19Northampton TownNorthampton361011153653-1741
20Peterborough UnitedPeterborough35109165260-839
21Burton Albion36712173653-1733
22Crawley TownCrawley3679203866-2830
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge3678213560-2529
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury3677223460-2628


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