League One

League One | Gameweek 40

Mar 23, 2024 at 3pm UK

Brunton Park

Carlisle
2 - 2
Stevenage

Butterworth (13', 65')
Charters (45+2'), Neal (67'), Butterworth (72'), Lewis (77')

FT(HT: 1-0)

MacDonald (82' pen.), Vancooten (90+6')
Freeman (29'), Roberts (39')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Stevenage, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions

Last Game: Shrewsbury 1-0 Carlisle
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Stevenage

All competitions

Last Game: Stevenage 0-1 Leyton Orient
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

We said: Carlisle United 1-1 Stevenage

Set to be supported by a bumper crowd at Brunton Park, Carlisle will be desperate to return to winning ways on Saturday afternoon against Stevenage. The Boro are without their leading marksman on Saturday, and we reckon that their dreams of reaching the playoffs will take another blow in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 58.52%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 18.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.21%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Carlisle United	Draw	Stevenage
18.21% ( -0.4)	23.27% ( -0.37)	58.52% ( 0.76)

Both teams to score 47.94% (

0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.76% (

0.89)

51.24% (

-0.89)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.92% (

0.77)

73.08% (

-0.77)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.91% (

0.06)

42.09% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.49% (

0.05)

78.51% (

-0.05)

Stevenage Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.77% (

0.6)

17.23% (

-0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.47% (

1.04)

47.52% (

-1.04)

Score Analysis

Carlisle United 18.21%

Stevenage 58.51%

Draw 23.26%

Carlisle United	Draw	Stevenage
1-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 2.72% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.86% Total : 18.21%	1-1 @ 11.03% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 7.25% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 4.2% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.78% Total : 23.26%	0-1 @ 12.75% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 11.21% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 9.7% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 6.57% ( 0.15) 1-3 @ 5.69% ( 0.14) 0-4 @ 2.89% ( 0.12) 1-4 @ 2.5% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.06) 2-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.05) 0-5 @ 1.02% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.64% Total : 58.51%