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League One | Gameweek 45
Apr 20, 2024 at 3pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
Port Vale

Bolton
2 - 0
Port Vale

Collins (72'), Jerome (90+3')
Maghoma (70'), Charles (70'), Toal (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Garrity (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Port Vale, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions
Last Game: Bolton 2-2 Shrewsbury
Tuesday, April 16 at 7.45pm in League One

Port Vale

All competitions
Last Game: Port Vale 1-2 Wycombe
Tuesday, April 16 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Bolton Wanderers 2-0 Port Vale

 Bolton head into this game as the clear favourites, boasting more than double Port Vale's points tally this season. The hosts have not lost in this fixture since a 6-3 defeat in December 2020, and we expect them to continue that unbeaten run with a victory here, in a must-win match for both sides. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 73.65%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 10.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.51%), while for a Port Vale win it was 1-2 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Bolton Wanderers in this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawPort Vale
73.65% (0.036000000000001 0.04) 16% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02) 10.35% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Both teams to score 51.29% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.05% (0.039000000000001 0.04)35.95% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.96% (0.044000000000004 0.04)58.04% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.62% (0.018000000000001 0.02)8.38% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.84% (0.043999999999997 0.04)29.16% (-0.041999999999998 -0.04)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.99% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)44.01% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.87% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)80.13% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 73.64%
    Port Vale 10.35%
    Draw 16%
Bolton WanderersDrawPort Vale
2-0 @ 11.33%
3-0 @ 9.37% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.3% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-0 @ 9.15% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.69% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 5.81% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.77% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.16% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 2.88% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 2.36% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.96% (0.002 0)
6-0 @ 1.19% (0.0030000000000001 0)
6-1 @ 0.98% (0.003 0)
5-2 @ 0.97% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 73.64%
1-1 @ 7.51% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.82% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 3.69% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.98%
Total : 16%
1-2 @ 3.08% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 3.03% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.24% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.05%
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 10.35%

How you voted: Bolton vs Port Vale

Bolton Wanderers
80.0%
Draw
0.0%
Port Vale
20.0%
15
Head to Head
Dec 5, 2023 7.45pm
Second Round
Bolton
2-0
Port Vale
Charles (9'), Mendes Gomes (64')
Thomason (60')

Iacovitti (57')
Sep 30, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 10
Port Vale
0-1
Bolton

Iacovitti (3'), Balmer (45+1')
Charles (43')
Iredale (64'), Morley (68'), Sheehan (76')
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 34
Bolton
2-1
Port Vale
Adeboyejo (18'), Sheehan (26')
Harrison (8')
Aug 13, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 3
Port Vale
0-0
Bolton
Forrester (45+2'), C (86')
Santos (10'), Williams (49')
Santos (37')
Aug 31, 2021 7pm
Group Stage
Bolton
3-2
Port Vale
Doyle (28'), Delfouneso (54'), Afolayan (77')
Delfouneso (67'), Santos (75'), Baptiste (81'), Brockbank (90')
Conlon (35'), Amoo (43')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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