The loss of Hoban is a bitter blow to Derry's chances of denting Shamrock's title bid further, but the Candystripes can almost always be relied upon to keep things tight at the back.
As such, an out-of-sorts and weary Shamrock - also missing chief creator Watts - may lose their outstanding scoring streak at home, but Derry's own lack of rest will work against them in what may prove to be an uneventful stalemate.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shamrock Rovers win with a probability of 43.82%. A win for Derry City had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shamrock Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Derry City win was 0-1 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Shamrock Rovers in this match.
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