Two teams making their first appearance at the Copa Sudamericana since 2018 will face each other in the quarter-finals, with the first leg taking place on Thursday at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Ecuador.
LDU Quito qualified for the last eight with a 2-1 win over Gremio in their second leg, advancing on away goals, while Athletico Paranaense beat America de Cali 4-1 in the second leg of their Round of 16 tie, advancing by an aggregate score of 5-1.
Match preview
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The Ecuadorians are still in the hunt to capture this competition after showing a ton of resilience in the second leg of their knockout stage match with Gremio, erasing a 1-0 deficit, scoring two away goals after losing the opening leg at home 1-0.
Pablo Marini is used to seeing his team fight their way back into a match, falling behind six times in the group stage of the Copa Libertadores, where they ended up finishing third and were relegated into this tournament.
This is the furthest Los Albos have gone in this competition since making it to the final in 2011 when they lost to Universidad de Chile.
They thoroughly dominated their Brazilian opponents in the previous round with five shots on target in both games and holding 76% possession in the first leg of that tie, which they lost 1-0.
The Ecuadorians have had an up and down domestic campaign to this point, with one win, a draw and a loss in their first three games as they sit in seventh place.
After leading the Ecuadorian league offensively with 31 tallies a year ago, this team have scored the bulk of their goals so far in 2021 at home, with 15 over their previous five fixtures in all competitions.
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Three years after capturing this tournament, their first major international trophy, El Paranaense will hope that they can recapture the magic of 2018 and climb to the top of the mountain once again.
The team from Curitiba were impressive in their group, winning five of their six matches, and they were able to carry that momentum into the knockout stage, handling America de Cali with ease in both legs.
Lately, playing away from home has been a struggle for them, going without a win in their previous three fixtures, although their last road victory came in this competition when they blanked Los Diablos Rojos 1-0 in Argentina last month.
Antonio Oliveira has seen his team get overwhelmed numerous times away from home, conceding seven goals in their last five games in all competitions.
In six previous meetings versus Ecuadorian opponents, the Brazilians have only lost once, winning four times, with their only defeat coming in the group stage of the 2002 Copa Libertadores against CD Olmedo.
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Team News
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Quito could be missing Billy Arce with a fractured arm, while midfielder Jordy Alcivar was the hero in the second leg against Gremio, scoring both goals to keep their hopes of winning this tournament alive.
Striker Luis Amarilla leads the team in goals domestically with seven, while Matias Zunino scored his first goal in league play this past weekend and Djorkaeff Reasco notched the equaliser in injury time in a 2-2 draw against Universidad Catolica.
Marini made two changes to the starting 11 from their opening leg, with Pedro Perlaza replacing Jose Quinteros at the back and Kevin Mercado starting in place of the injured Billy Arce.
Vitinho leads Athletico at the Sudamericana with four goals, including a brace in the second leg of their Round of 16 match, but he has not scored in his last four games in all competitions.
Matheus Babi is likely gone for the season with a cruciate ligament rupture, while Renato Kayzer has a goal in each of his last two matches in all competitions, while also scoring twice in the group stage of this tournament.
Oliveira made a few changes from leg one to leg two against the Colombians, adding Marcinho to the defensive backline, replacing Ze Ivaldo, with Nicolas moving back into defence while Christian was preferred to Richard.
LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Gabbarini; Quinteros, Caicedo, Guerra, Perlaza; Alcivar, Piovi; Mercado, Julio, Zunino; Amarilla
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Bento; Marcinho, Henrique, Heleno, Nicolas; Christian, Cittadini; Nikao; Terans, Babi, Vitinho
We say: LDU Quito 1-1 Athletico Paranaense
Los Blancos have dug themselves a lot of deficits lately, falling behind in three of their last four fixtures in all competitions, but the good news for them is that their opponents Athletico Paranaense have struggled to maintain their advantages lately, and with both teams likely getting a feel for one another, we could be in for a stalemate.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.49%) and 3-2 (4.8%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.
