Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 51.04%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for LDU Quito had a probability of 23.79%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a LDU Quito win it was 0-1 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.