With any hopes of a top-four finish now surely dead in the water, Lazio prepare for battle against already-relegated Parma in Wednesday's Serie A clash.
Both sides suffered demoralising defeats at the weekend, as Simone Inzaghi's men fell to a 2-0 defeat away at Fiorentina while Parma's losing streak continued against Atalanta.
Match preview
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Lazio had started to turn the screw in Serie A following their Champions League exit to Bayern Munich - winning six from seven before their trip to Fiorentina - but Dusan Vlahovic may have single-handedly killed off the Biancocelesti's top-four hopes.
The 21-year-old struck either side of the break to condemn Lazio to their second away defeat in succession following their April humiliation at the hands of Napoli, and with only four games left to play, a spot in Europe's premier competition is almost impossible for Inzaghi's men to achieve now.
Indeed, sixth-placed Lazio are six points adrift of the top four - although they do have a game in hand - before Napoli play host to Udinese on Tuesday night, and fifth-placed Juventus also cannot be caught by the Biancocelesti as they seek an immediate return to winning ways.
Had Lazio been able to replicate their home form on the road this season, they would surely be dining at Europe's top table for the 2021-22 campaign, as Inzaghi has overseen 11 consecutive Serie A wins at the Stadio Olimpico, with his Ciro Immobile-led side scoring a whopping 17 goals in their last five home outings.
Anything other than a win here and Lazio may as well kiss their Champions League dreams goodbye, but Inzaghi will certainly welcome a meeting with a Parma side already preparing for life in Serie B following a truly torrid season.
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Even the most staunch rearguards in Europe would struggle to contain Atalanta's ruthless attacking contingent on their day, and Parma - as expected - became the latest victims of a goal-laden performance from Gian Piero Gasperini's side at the weekend.
Roberto D'Aversa's men did manage to strike through Juan Brunetta and Simon Sohm, but Atalanta's merciless substitutes in Luis Muriel (two), Aleksey Miranchuk and Matteo Pessina all netted after Ruslan Malinovskyi had drawn first blood with 12 minutes on the clock.
Serie B-bound Parma have now suffered six straight defeats in the top flight and are condemned to finish in the bottom two of the division, so the only thing left for D'Aversa is to prevent his side from finishing rock bottom of the pile, as basement side Crotone sit two points behind their soon-to-be second tier opponents.
Not since November 30 have Parma managed to prevail away from home in the top flight - losing eight and drawing five on the road since beating Genoa in their most recent triumph on unfamiliar turf - and having failed to keep a clean sheet on the road all season, Immobile and Joaquin Correa could be in for a field day against D'Aversa's men.
Lazio eased to a 2-0 win when they travelled to Parma back in January - 11 days before dumping them out of the Coppa Italia - and the visitors are winless in 13 against the Biancocelesti since a 3-1 triumph in the 2011-12 season.
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Team News
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Lazio wing-back Mohamed Fares is back from suspension for this encounter and could displace the veteran Senad Lulic on the left, but Lucas Leiva and Andreas Pereira have incurred bans, with the latter picking up two yellows in the space of 13 minutes against Fiorentina.
With Sergej Milinkovic-Savic also suffering a broken nose in the defeat to the Viola - which he has since undergone surgery on - Danilo Cataldi and Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro may both be called upon to man the engine room.
Milinkovic-Savic joins Gonzalo Escalante and Felipe Caicedo in the hosts' infirmary, while Immobile will aim to register both a goal and an assist for the fourth home game running this week.
It is no surprise that Parma's woeful form has coincided with a near-full capacity medical room, as the likes of Wylan Cyprien, Gaston Brugman, Yann Karamoh, Dennis Man and Roberto Inglese all nurse various injuries.
Hernani is back from suspension and could earn an immediate recall to the engine room, but Brunetta is also pushing for a start after making the net ripple against Atalanta, so Jasmin Kurtic may make way.
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Reina; Marusic, Acerbi, Radu; Lazzari, Cataldi, Alberto, Akpa Akpro, Fares; Immobile, Correa
Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Busi, Osorio, Alves, Gagliolo; Hernani, Sohm, Grassi; Brunetta; Cornelius, Gervinho
We say: Lazio 2-0 Parma
Lazio could hardly have been handed a friendlier fixture as they bid to end the season with a flourish, and their astonishing record against Parma speaks for itself.
The Biancocelesti's perfect home record in 2021 should not be under any threat of coming to an end whatsoever here - this should be a routine win for Inzaghi's crop.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 67.84%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Parma had a probability of 14.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 1-0 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.21%), while for a Parma win it was 1-2 (4.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
