Lazio will square off against Genoa on Sunday afternoon looking for a victory which will strengthen their hold of a top-six place in the Serie A standings.
At a time when the visitors are pushing for European qualification, Genoa are three points adrift of safety after their previous unbeaten run was ended earlier this week.
Match preview
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After losing in the last 32 of the Europa League and going through an inconsistent spell in Serie A, Lazio's season looked like unravelling at the end of February.
However, Maurizio Sarri's side have since responded with three wins from four games, their solitary defeat coming by a 3-0 scoreline at neighbours Roma.
Come the end of the campaign, that result may prove costly, but the victories which have been posted during the same period have kept Lazio within two points of their great rivals.
While Ciro Immobile has recently moved up to 21 goals in Serie A, it was Manuel Lazzari and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic who got on the scoresheet during the 2-1 triumph over Sassuolo last weekend.
Goals have not been a problem for I Biancocelesti - they hold the second-best attacking record in the division - but their only clean sheets in eight fixtures have come against teams currently occupying places in the bottom four.
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With Genoa in 19th position, Lazio will be confident of posting another shutout, although they face opponents who have battled hard to remain within touching distance of safety.
Remarkably, Genoa still have only two wins from 31 matches to their name this season, but an eight-game unbeaten streak has kept Alexander Blessin's side with more than just hope.
On a negative note, that run came to an end on Monday as Il Grifone went down 1-0 at Hellas Verona, the decisive strike coming as early as the fifth minute, and Genoa have now scored just once in five games.
Nevertheless, you have to go all the way back to January 17 for the last time that Genoa conceded more than once in a top-flight fixture, a record which gives them a chance of upsetting the odds at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
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Team News
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Despite defeat to Verona last time out, Blessin is unlikely to make too many changes to his Genoa XI.
However, Leo Ostigard could return to the centre of the defence after serving a one-match suspension, a move which may lead to Johan Vasquez returning to left-back.
Further forward, the likes of Caleb Ekuban and Kelvin Yeboah are expected to remain among the replacements.
Barring any late fitness issues, Sarri could stick with the same Lazio starting lineup from the win over Sassuolo.
Luiz Felipe is closing in on a return from a knee problem, but Sarri will not want to take any risks on the centre-back.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Hefti, Maksimovic, Ostigard, Vasquez; Sturaro, Badelj; Gudmundsson, Melegoni, Portanova; Destro
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Lazzari, Patric, Acerbi, Marusic; Milinkovic-Savic, Leiva, Alberto; Anderson, Immobile, Zaccagni
We say: Genoa 1-2 Lazio
Given how Genoa have performed in recent weeks, they will fancy their chances of earning at least a share of the spoils against an inconsistent Lazio outfit. Nevertheless, we still expect the visitors to come through this contest, potentially by the odd goal in three in a competitive encounter.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 45.67%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Genoa win was 1-0 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
