Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 44.52%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 27.43%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.84%) and 1-2 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-0 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.