FC Koln take on Mainz 05 in a potentially decisive Bundesliga relegation battle on Sunday.
The hosts, who currently occupy the relegation playoff position in the table, can leapfrog Mainz by a point and suck them into the bottom three by beating them.
Match preview
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Koln were unfortunate to fall to a 1-0 defeat to high-flying Wolfsburg last weekend, with Markus Gisdol's side missing several presentable chances against the Bundesliga's joint-strongest defence.
Despite heading into the match 13 places and 28 points behind their opponents, Koln looked the more threatening side throughout most of the match, with captain Jonas Hector hitting the bar from Noah Katterbach's dangerous cross in the first half.
However, the Wolves are a clinical side at both ends of the pitch this season, with Wout Weghorst superbly keeping the ball alive to help Josip Brekalo ruthlessly dispatch his finish past Timo Horn and break the deadlock for his side.
Koln should have snatched a point late on, but Ellyes Skhiri somehow headed over from close range, leaving his side two points adrift of safety.
However, they have a golden opportunity of overturning that gap against Mainz on Sunday in what surely represents a must-not-lose match for them in terms of their survival hopes.
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Gisdol's side are unlikely to find matters easy against Mainz, though, with Bo Svensson performing a minor miracle since being appointed as manager in January.
Mainz looked set to be cut adrift alongside Schalke in the automatic relegation places after losing their first six matches of the season and lying on six points after 13 matches, but a return of 19 points from his 14 matches in charge has helped Mainz climb out of the bottom three.
The 41-year-old, who spent seven years at the club as a player, could not have had a tougher start, either, having faced the Bundesliga's top five sides in each of his first five matches in charge.
However, he would have been disappointed with their 1-1 draw at home to relegation rivals Arminia Bielefeld last weekend, having been the better side for the majority of the match.
Leandro Barreiro was twice denied from close range in the first half, before the deadlock was finally broken by Daniel Brosinski's penalty.
However, Andreas Voglsammer scored a goal out of nothing to snatch a crucial point for Arminia, which denied Mainz from moving four points clear of Koln ahead of Sunday's crucial clash.
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Team News
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Koln appear to be blessed on the availability front, with only Jan Thielmann ruled out due to a muscle injury.
Sebastian Andersson returned from injury from the substitutes' bench in the defeat at Wolfsburg, with Gisdol surely contemplating restoring either the Sweden striker or January transfer window signing Emmanuel Dennis into the side to provide a focal point in attack.
Mainz, meanwhile, were dealt a major blow in the draw with Arminia by losing their goalscorer Brosinski to a broken ankle. The right wing-back is unlikely to return to first-team action for around a month.
Danny da Costa should provide an attacking alternative to replace him, while the likes of Danny Latza, Robin Quaison and Karim Onisiwo will all be pushing for a start having only been named on the bench against Arminia.
Luca Kilian and Paul Nebel will both miss out through injury.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Horn; Ehizibue, Mere, Czichos, Katterbach; Rexhbecaj, Skhiri, Hector, Duda, Jakobs; Andersson
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Da Costa, Barreiro, Kohr, Boetius, Mwene; Glatzel, Quaison
We say: FC Koln 1-1 Mainz 05
There is little doubt which side heads into this match in better form, but with so much at stake, we can envisage a cagey draw.
Both sides will be desperate to avoid losing any ground on each other, so both managers may accept a share of the spoils.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 43.39%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 30.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (7.88%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-0 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
