Juventus can practically wipe out Lazio's Serie A title chances when the two Scudetto hopefuls go head-to-head in a crunch match on Monday evening.
Table-toppers Juventus have accumulated 77 points from 33 matches, eight more than Lazio, who have slipped down to fourth following a poor run of form.
Match preview
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Even though Juventus still boast a healthy lead atop the Serie A rankings, the final stretch has not been as smooth as Maurizio Sarri would have hoped.
The Old Lady are now winless in three following their six-goal stalemate with Sassuolo last time out - having previously drawn with high-flying Atalanta and lost to AC Milan in the last couple of weeks.
Danilo and Gonzalo Higuain looked to have put the tie to bed early on against Sassuolo, but I Neroverdi produced a barnstorming comeback and Juventus were indebted to Alex Sandro's equaliser as they salvaged a point on Wednesday.
As things stand, Juventus are six points clear of second-placed Inter Milan and seven above third-placed Atalanta, but both sides can close the gap on the current champions should they both pick up wins on Saturday.
A ninth consecutive Serie A triumph is not in the bag yet for Sarri's men, although Juve can take a giant stride towards retaining their crown with all three points against an out-of-sorts Lazio side on Monday.
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Having pushed Juventus all the way before the lockdown period following a magnificent first half of the season, Lazio have simply capitulated in the last few weeks.
Simone Inzaghi's men had only tasted defeat twice in their opening 26 matches before play was brought to a halt, but Lazio have lost four since the restart and were held to a goalless draw by Udinese last time out.
Injuries and suspensions have plagued Inzaghi's side recently and there will be some inevitable fatigue amongst his regular fixtures, but it would take nothing less than a miracle for Lazio to achieve Serie A glory now.
Should I Biancocelesti lose this weekend, they will be 11 points adrift of Juventus with four games left to play, and Inzaghi will be keen to avoid any more substandard performances lest they risk dropping out of the top four.
While that occurrence seems highly unlikely, fifth-placed Roma have been on a strong run of form and can still pip Lazio to the fourth and final Champions League spot - in spite of the 11-point gap currently separating the two sides.
On an individual basis, Cristiano Ronaldo and Ciro Immobile are engaged in a two-horse race for the Capocannoniere, with the Lazio man currently boasting 29 goals for the season compared to Ronaldo's 28.
Juventus Serie A form: WWWLDD
Lazio Serie A form: WWLLLD
Team News
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Juventus will have to face Lazio without the services of Federico Bernardeschi after the Italian picked up his fifth booking of the season against Sassuolo.
Douglas Costa is therefore expected to fill the void on the right-hand side of attack, but Sami Khedira and Mattia De Sciglio are both on the treatment table.
Juan Cuadrado returns from a suspension of his own and is in line for a recall, while Paulo Dybala and Leonardo Bonucci are both in contention to feature from the opening whistle.
Lazio's injury list currently includes Senad Lulic, Adam Marusic, Joaquin Correa and Lucas Leiva, all of whom may not feature again this season.
Inzaghi is also facing a quandary in defence with Patric still banned, while Stefan Radu is understood to have suffered a calf injury against Udinese and could be out for the remainder of the campaign.
Lazio are extremely thin on the ground right now, but Jordan Lukaku and Bastos both came off the bench in midweek and could be in line for starts here.
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Cuadrado, De Ligt, Bonucci, Sandro; Rabiot, Pjanic, Bentancur; Costa, Dybala, Ronaldo
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Felipe, Acerbi, Bastos; Lazzari, Milinkovic-Savic, Parolo, Alberto, Lukaku; Immobile, Caicedo
We say: Juventus 2-1 Lazio
Lazio are losing some vital players at a time where Inzaghi needs a fully-fit squad firing on all cylinders. Juventus have not covered themselves in glory over the past few weeks either, but Lazio's defence is looking increasingly shaky and we are backing the Old Lady to scrape a narrow victory and leave Lazio's Scudetto hopes hanging by a thread.
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventus win with a probability of 57.05%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Lazio win it was 1-2 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Juventus in this match.
