In what is shaping up to be a crucial clash at the bottom of the Serie A table, Genoa will welcome the visit of Spezia Calcio.
Genoa begin the weekend in the drop zone, but can move within one point of 17th-placed Spezia with a victory on Sunday afternoon.
Match preview
© Reuters
It has not been a campaign to remember for Genoa so far, with the Griffins only picking up one win from their opening 19 matches of the campaign.
Such torrid form means that it is little surprise that Genoa find themselves in the bottom three, with their tally of 12 points the second-fewest in the division.
Only bottom-placed Salernitana sit below them in the table, with Genoa starting the weekend having won one of their last 18 matches in all competitions.
That victory came in the Coppa Italia against Salernitana themselves, meaning Genoa are winless in their last 17 Serie A outings.
Their current 14-season stay in the top flight looks to be coming towards an end, and Spezia will be hoping to pile the misery on Genoa when the pair meet this weekend.
Similarly to Sunday's opponents, Spezia ended the calendar year in poor fashion, winning only one of their last eight matches of 2021.
Granted, that victory was a standout 1-0 win away to Scudetto-chasing Napoli, but it remains their only triumph in the league since early November.
History suggests that run could continue for Spezia, who have not won against Genoa since November 2006 – a run of five matches without a victory.
Sharing the spoils the previous time the pair met this season, Genoa can ill-afford any more slip-ups as they look to steer clear of the drop.
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Team News
Already in the midst of a cutthroat relegation battle, Genoa could do with a clean bill of health, yet they will begin the weekend with a number of key players set to miss out.
A muscle problem will mean Nikola Maksimovic missed the fixture, whilst coronavirus is likely to deny Laurens Serpe an opportunity to feature.
Elsehwere, Domenico Criscito has featured 14 times this season, but a calf niggle will keep the defender out, while Nicolo Rovella will be missing with a muscle problem.
For the visitors, they have their own problems to deal with as a Coronavirus outbreak begins to take hold of the squad.
Four first-team players will be missing due to the virus, with M'Bala Nzola, Petko Hristov, Rey Manaj and Viktor Kovalenko forced into isolation.
Gambia international Ebrima Colley is with his national team competing in the Africa Cup of Nations, whilst Kevin Agudelo will serve the final match of his straight red card suspension.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Vanheusden, Bani, Vasquez; Hefti, Hernani, Badelj, Portanova, Cambiaso; Ekuban, Destro
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Amian, Erlic, Nikolaou, Reca; Kiwior, Maggiore, Bastoni; Strelec, Salcedo, Gyasi
We say: Genoa 1-1 Spezia
Neither side can afford to drop any points against their relegation rivals, with a tight contest expected on Sunday afternoon.
Without much in the way to separate the two sides, expect the shares to be spoiled in this crucial relegation clash.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 45.49%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 28.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
