Two sides separated by just a single point in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table will play each other on Wednesday as Fluminense end their two-game homestand against Internacional at the Maracana.
On Sunday, Flu scored late in each half to defeat America Mineiro 2-0, moving into seventh place, just a point above Colorado, who dropped their second consecutive league game with a 2-1 loss to Flamengo.
Match preview
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The club from Rio made the most of their home-field advantage this weekend, winning their fourth successive match at the Maracana as they are now unbeaten in five consecutive Serie A fixtures played in their own backyard.
Nine of their 13 wins domestically have come in front of their hometown fans, with their last seven victories coming in the countries third most populous city.
Those points have been invaluable for Marcao and his side, who are inching closer to a qualifying position for the 2022 Copa Libertadores, currently only four points behind Bragantino and Fortaleza for fifth and fourth respectively, with only four games remaining.
Two of their final three fixtures are on the road, so they will treat this match as a must-win in their top-five aspirations, especially knowing that they have lost four in a row away from home.
This team have been cutting it close throughout the campaign, with 28 of their top-flight fixtures being decided by a goal or fewer.
They seem to take their time when it comes to getting a foothold into their matches, failing to capitalize numerous times on their early opportunities, with 20 of their 33 league goals being scored in the second half.
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Speaking of starting slowly, that is what Diego Aguirre saw his side do once again this weekend, as Internacional have now lost back-to-back league games for the first time all season.
Clube do Povo had their share of chances versus the defending Serie A champions on Sunday, but falling behind 2-0 before a match is 15 minutes old against the second-best defensive unit in Brazil will not earn you a lot of points, as the team from Porto Alegre have lost five of their previous six road games in the league by a one-goal margin.
With only four games to go, they are in danger of missing out on the Copa Libertadores entirely next season for the first time since being relegated into the second tier of Brazilian football in 2016, currently 5 points back of one of those two qualifying spots.
Teams who play against them are usually very aggressive and not afraid to throw in a challenge, but Internacional are equally physical themselves, committing 81 fouls in their five matches played this month while being fouled 76 times.
In previous games this year, an early goal has often opened the floodgates for them, scoring four goals or more three times in 2021 when they were able to strike in the opening 20 minutes, which was the case in their previous meeting with Flu in August when they won 4-2, thanks to a pair of injury-time strikes.
Defensively they have allowed far too many quality scoring opportunities of late, conceding 13 shots on target in their previous two encounters, both of which resulted in defeats.
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Team News
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Fred returned to the lineup versus America over the weekend after missing their previous match due to a red card suspension, and he scored from the penalty spot with less than 10 minutes remaining, his third of the campaign, putting him one behind Luiz Henrique, who notched the winner late in the first half.
Marcos Felipe stopped all three shots fired his way on Sunday to collect his first clean sheet since their opening match this month versus Sport Recife, as he now has 10 on the year, the same amount as Daniel of Internacional.
Samuel Xavier replaced Lucas Calegari at full-back, Matheus Martinelli was inserted into the starting lineup over the weekend in midfield instead of Nonato, while Luiz Henrique and Fred started in attack over Lucca and John Kennedy.
Edenilson had a brace the last time that Internacional played Fluminense this year, including the winner deep into injury time as he is tied for the team lead in that department alongside Yuri Alberto with 11 and leads them in assists with seven, two ahead of Victor Cuesta, who had a pair of helpers in that 4-2 triumph versus Flu.
Rodrigo Moledo has a cruciate ligament rupture and has not seen the field since the early stages of 2021, and it would be a surprise to see him play again this year.
This weekend Moises took the place of Paulo Victor in defence, Victor Cuesta played in central defence rather than Gabriel Mercado, Rodrigo Lindoso played the full 90 minutes as a holding midfielder, taking the place of Johnny, Edenilson started ahead of Caio Vidal and Taison got the start over Yuri Alberto.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Felipe; S. Xavier, Nino, Braz, M. Xavier; Wellington, Andre, Nonato; Henrique, Fred, Paulista
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Lomba; Heitor, Mercado, Cuesta, Moises; Mauricio, Dourado; Edenilson, Taison, Patrick; Alberto
We say: Fluminense 1-0 Internacional
Flu have only conceded two goals in their previous five home fixtures and should be full of confidence with their inspirational leader Fred back in the fold, not to mention victories over Palmeiras (2-1) and Flamengo (3-1) on their current unbeaten run at the Maracana, which should have them feeling pretty good about their chances in this one.
Colorado have scored once in their last six road matches, with their previous three defeats coming versus sides who are below them in the table, two of whom (Sao Paulo and Juventude) are fighting to stave off relegation, so needless to say the 2020 league runners-up are not trending in the right direction.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 45.01%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Internacional had a probability of 27.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.92%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.94%), while for a Internacional win it was 0-1 (9.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fluminense in this match.
