Flamengo have a chance to climb back into second place in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table on Friday when they take on Atletico Goianiense at the Maracana.
The defending two-time league champions let two points slip through their fingertips on Tuesday in a 2-2 draw against Athletico Paranaense, while Dragao are winless in their three previous league fixtures away from home after falling 2-0 to Sport Recife this past weekend.
Match preview
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A few days after earning a massive three points at home versus the league leaders Atletico Mineiro, Mengao had an opportunity to keep that momentum going against a club in El Paranaense, who have been a thorn in their side of late, knocking this powerful team from Sao Paulo out of the Copa do Brasil with an emphatic 3-0 win and advancing to the final, 5-2 on aggregate.
Renato Gaucho saw his players come out with plenty of purpose in their Serie A fixture against Paranaense on Tuesday, going up 2-0 before the match was a half-hour old, but after about an hour of play, they began to lose some steam, allowing their share of chances before conceding two goals, including the equaliser in the 95th minute.
With 11 games to go and trailing by nine points in their quest for a third successive league title, there is little room for error down the stretch for Flamengo, who dropped to third in the table with their draw on Tuesday, as they currently sit two points behind Palmeiras, who they will face in the final of the Copa Libertadores.
They return to the Maracana, in a venue where they have been strong defensively in recent weeks, conceding only one goal in their previous four league matches played there and allowing no more than two shots on target in each of those games.
This side are one of the most dangerous in Brazil when they press you and play aggressively, and shutting them down completely for 90 minutes is a tall order to say the least.
Around this stage of their 2020 campaign, Flamengo came on strong, picking up points in all but two of their final nine league fixtures, enabling them to retain their crown by a single point, and they may need a repeat performance or a better one to hang onto their Serie A title in 2021.
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Atletico began last month on a positive note, shutting out Fortaleza 3-0 on the road, but since then, it has not been easy for this group to find a way through opposing defences, especially away from home, where they are without a goal now in three successive league fixtures.
Their play at home has kept them in a comfortable position in the top flight, currently in 11th with only one defeat in their previous eight Brasileiro Serie A matches played at Estadio Antonio Accioly.
With a game in hand on virtually every team above them at the moment, interim manager Eduardo Souza knows that this is a prime opportunity for his team not only to move into the top half of the table but also increase their odds of potentially moving into a top-six position, which would earn them a place in the Copa Libertadores qualifiers in 2022.
This team play well in stretches, but they tend to fall asleep at times and make some silly mistakes seemingly from nothing, and they are not a good side when trailing, winning only once in this domestic campaign after conceding the opening goal.
If Goianiense can somehow come away with some points from their upcoming two encounters versus Flamengo and Palmeiras, it should put them in the clear when it comes to any threat of relegation, though that is not a concern at the moment, currently sitting seven points clear of that line.
On paper, their schedule down the stretch is somewhat favourable as five of their next six games, following their matchup with Palestra next Wednesday, are against sides who are near the bottom of the standings and in real danger of moving down to Serie B, including home fixtures against Santos, Ceara, Bahia and Juventude, plus a road match versus Chapecoense, who have only won once all season.
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Team News
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Gabriel Barbosa picked up his fourth and fifth goals of the season for Flamengo earlier this week, putting him ahead of Pedro and Michael for second on the team, while Mauricio Isla collected just his second assist of the domestic campaign.
Giorgian De Arrascaeta is out with a muscle injury, while Kenedy, who is on loan from Chelsea in the English Premier League, has sat out of their last two fixtures.
There was only one change to the Urubu starting 11 on Tuesday as Vitinho replaced Bruno Henrique, who leads the team in goals this year with nine and currently sits in a tie with Edenilson of Internacional for fourth in the league.
Goianiense keeper Fernando Miguel, who is on loan from Vasco da Gama, conceded twice in the final 15 minutes of play, but his team did not help him out much, allowing six shots on target while only firing three on goal themselves versus Recife.
Last Sunday, only one change was made to the starting 11, with Gabriel Baralhas replacing Maranhao as a holding midfielder.
Ze Roberto leads the team in goals with five but has not found the back of the net since August 15, when he scored the equaliser in their 2-1 comeback victory versus Bahia.
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Ramon, Pereira, G, Henrique, Rodinei; Michael, Arao, Maia, Ribeiro; Vintho, Barbosa
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Igor, Eder, Wanderson, Arnaldo; Baralhas, Freitas; Paulo, Luis, Janderson; Ze Roberto
We say: Flamengo 2-0 Atletico Goianiense
Flamengo know that they have ground to make up in the league table, but at the same time they have the players who are capable of doing it.
Goianiense have the second-best defensive side in the top flight in terms of goals conceded, allowing only 26 this year, but Mengao have plenty of attacking options and their relentless movement forward, and a desperation to win should carry the day.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 71.79%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Atletico Goianiense had a probability of 9.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.37%) and 3-0 (10.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.61%), while for an Atletico Goianiense win it was 0-1 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Flamengo in this match.