Finland square off against Kazakhstan on Tuesday evening knowing that they realistically need all three points to remain in the hunt for the 2022 World Cup.
While the visitors sit three points adrift of second-placed Ukraine with three games left, Kazakhstan have already been eliminated from Group D after failing to win any of their six fixtures.
Match preview
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Having gained an important win at home to Kazakhstan in September, Finland looked well set to maintain their bid for second spot in the table.
However, falling to a 2-1 defeat to Ukraine on Saturday has turned the tide against Markku Kanerva's side, the nation now outsiders to claim a playoff spot.
With France to come on the final matchday, Kanerva will acknowledge that maximum points are a must ahead of their trips to Kazakhstan and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
At a time when they would still have to rely on other results going their way, Kanerva may encourage his players to go against their natural instincts and attack from the opening whistle.
The Eagle-owls have failed to score more than once during nine matches in succession, a streak which must surely need to come to an end in one of the next two outings.
From Kazakhstan's perspective, all focus will now be on ending a 13-match winless run now that they are unable to qualify for the playoffs.
Talgat Baysufinov will argue that it has been a case of what could have been for his team, but needing to come from behind to earn their three points in the group has finally caught up with them.
While Finland have struggled in front of goal over a nine-game period, Kazakhstan have failed to keep a clean sheet over the same amount of contests.
The Hawks have won just one home fixture since March 2019, that solitary success coming against international minnows San Marino.
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Team News
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With qualification now out of the question, it would come as no surprise if Baysufinov made a number of changes to his Kazakhstan XI.
Abzal Beysebekov could be brought in at right wing-back, while Oralkhan Omirtaev and Aybar Zhaksylykov are options in attack.
Niko Hamalainen is expected to be handed an opportunity in the Finland side after Nikolai Alho went off injured on Saturday.
Despite remaining as an unused substitute against Ukraine, Onni Valakari will be considered for a place in midfield.
Barring any late fitness issues, the rest of the team could stay the same.
Kazakhstan possible starting lineup:
Pokatilov; Logvinenko, Alip, Maliy; Beysebekov, Vorogovskiy, Zhukov, Kuat, Shomko; Zaynutdinov, Omirtaev
Finland possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Hamalainen, Arajuuri, Toivio, Vaisanen, Raitala; Lam, Kamara, Lod; Pukki, Pohjanpalo
We say: Kazakhstan 1-1 Finland
Despite their position in the group, Kazakhstan have proven that they cannot be taken lightly. With that in mind, we feel that a low-scoring draw is the most likely result, a scoreline which will do the visitors no favours.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 48.92%. A win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 27.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.49%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Kazakhstan win was 2-1 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.
