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Middlesbrough logo
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 7, 2023 at 3pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Brighton logo

Middlesbrough
1 - 5
Brighton

Akpom (13')
Giles (76')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Gross (8'), Lallana (29'), Mac Allister (58', 80'), Undav (88')
Caicedo (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Middlesbrough and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Birmingham 1-3 Middlesbrough
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Everton 1-4 Brighton
Tuesday, January 3 at 7.45pm in Premier League

We said: Middlesbrough 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion

Middlesbrough are flying in the Championship under Carrick and should fancy their chances against the Premier League visitors on Saturday, especially considering their run in the FA Cup last season. Brighton will place a lot of importance on reaching the latter stages of this competition as they hunt their first major trophy, and they should have enough to earn a place in the fourth round this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 39.59%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 35.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.

Result
MiddlesbroughDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
39.59% (0.023000000000003 0.02) 25.37% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 35.05% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 56.27% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.51% (0.033000000000001 0.03)47.5% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.3% (0.032 0.03)69.71% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.27% (0.028999999999996 0.03)23.73% (-0.023 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.14% (0.037999999999997 0.04)57.87% (-0.031000000000006 -0.03)
Brighton & Hove Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.78% (0.012 0.01)26.22% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.68% (0.012 0.01)61.32% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Middlesbrough 39.59%
    Brighton & Hove Albion 35.05%
    Draw 25.36%
MiddlesbroughDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
1-0 @ 8.95% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-1 @ 8.62% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 6.44% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 4.13% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-0 @ 3.09% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 2.77% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 1.49% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 1.11% (0.002 0)
4-2 @ 0.99% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 39.59%
1-1 @ 11.98%
0-0 @ 6.22% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.77% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 1.23% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.36%
0-1 @ 8.33% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.02% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-2 @ 5.58% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 3.58%
2-3 @ 2.57% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 2.49% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-4 @ 1.2%
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 35.05%

How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Brighton

Middlesbrough
19.0%
Draw
24.1%
Brighton & Hove Albion
56.9%
58
Head to Head
Jan 27, 2018 3pm
Fourth Round
Middlesbrough
0-1
Brighton

Clayton (44')
Murray (90')
Baldock (61'), Propper (68'), Izquierdo (70'), Kayal (95')
May 7, 2016 12.30pm
Dec 19, 2015 12.30pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool108111961325
2Manchester CityMan City1072121111023
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest10541147719
4Chelsea105322012818
5Arsenal105321711618
6Aston Villa105321715218
7Tottenham HotspurSpurs1051422111116
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton104421714316
9Fulham104331413115
10Bournemouth104331312115
11Newcastle UnitedNewcastle104331010015
12Brentford104151920-113
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd10334912-312
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham103251319-611
15Leicester CityLeicester102441418-410
16Everton102351017-79
17Crystal Palace10145813-57
18Ipswich TownIpswich100551021-115
19Southampton10118719-124
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves100371427-133


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