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FA Cup
Middlesbrough logo
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 7, 2023 at 3pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Brighton logo

Middlesbrough
1 - 5
Brighton

Akpom (13')
Giles (76')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Gross (8'), Lallana (29'), Mac Allister (58', 80'), Undav (88')
Caicedo (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Middlesbrough and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Middlesbrough

All competitions
Last Game: Birmingham 1-3 Middlesbrough
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in Championship

Brighton & Hove Albion

All competitions
Last Game: Everton 1-4 Brighton
Tuesday, January 3 at 7.45pm in Premier League

We said: Middlesbrough 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion

 Middlesbrough are flying in the Championship under Carrick and should fancy their chances against the Premier League visitors on Saturday, especially considering their run in the FA Cup last season. Brighton will place a lot of importance on reaching the latter stages of this competition as they hunt their first major trophy, and they should have enough to earn a place in the fourth round this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 39.59%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 35.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.

Result
MiddlesbroughDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
39.59% (0.023000000000003 0.02) 25.37% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 35.05% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 56.27% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.51% (0.033000000000001 0.03)47.5% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.3% (0.032 0.03)69.71% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.27% (0.028999999999996 0.03)23.73% (-0.023 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.14% (0.037999999999997 0.04)57.87% (-0.031000000000006 -0.03)
Brighton & Hove Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.78% (0.012 0.01)26.22% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.68% (0.012 0.01)61.32% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Middlesbrough 39.59%
    Brighton & Hove Albion 35.05%
    Draw 25.36%
MiddlesbroughDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
1-0 @ 8.95% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-1 @ 8.62% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 6.44% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 4.13% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-0 @ 3.09% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 2.77% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 1.49% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 1.11% (0.002 0)
4-2 @ 0.99% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 39.59%
1-1 @ 11.98%
0-0 @ 6.22% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.77% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 1.23% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.36%
0-1 @ 8.33% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.02% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-2 @ 5.58% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 3.58%
2-3 @ 2.57% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 2.49% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-4 @ 1.2%
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 35.05%

How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Brighton

Middlesbrough
19.0%
Draw
24.1%
Brighton & Hove Albion
56.9%
58
Head to Head
Jan 27, 2018 3pm
Fourth Round
Middlesbrough
0-1
Brighton

Clayton (44')
Murray (90')
Baldock (61'), Propper (68'), Izquierdo (70'), Kayal (95')
May 7, 2016 12.30pm
Middlesbrough
1-1
Brighton
Stuani (19')
Stephens (55')
Knockaert (24'), Wilson (95'), Goldson (96')
Stephens (58')
Dec 19, 2015 12.30pm
Brighton
0-3
Middlesbrough
Kike (4'), Adomah (44'), Stuani (62')
Leadbitter (14')
May 2, 2015 12.15pm
Middlesbrough
0-0
Brighton
> Match Report
Oct 18, 2014 3pm
Brighton
1-2
Middlesbrough
> Match Report
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
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2Manchester CityMan City117222213923
3Chelsea115422113819
4Arsenal115421812619
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest115421510519
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton115421915419
7Fulham115331613318
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1151523131016
11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Leicester CityLeicester112451421-710
16Everton112451017-710
17Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
18Crystal Palace11146815-77
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144
> Premier League Full Table


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