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FA Cup
Middlesbrough logo
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 6, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Aston Villa logo

Middlesbrough
0 - 1
Aston Villa


Jones (23')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Cash (87')
Konsa (37'), Bailey (40'), Cash (74'), Zaniolo (80'), Lenglet (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Middlesbrough and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Middlesbrough

All competitions
Last Game: Middlesbrough 1-3 Coventry
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Aston Villa

All competitions
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-2 Burnley
Saturday, December 30 at 3pm in Premier League

We said: Middlesbrough 1-3 Aston Villa

 The third-round curse has plagued Aston Villa for almost eight years now, but with Middlesbrough working around a personnel crisis, the Lions ought to avoid making unwanted history at the Riverside. A recent lack of defensive discipline from the Lions offers Carrick's decimated squad some hope of a surprise beating, but even with a few first-teamers rested, Emery's men ought to reach the fourth round for the first time since the 2015-16 campaign. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.46%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
MiddlesbroughDrawAston Villa
40.42% (0.286 0.29) 24.01% (0.056999999999999 0.06) 35.57% (-0.34099999999999 -0.34)
Both teams to score 61.24% (-0.271 -0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.92% (-0.33 -0.33)41.08% (0.331 0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.53% (-0.337 -0.34)63.47% (0.339 0.34)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.47% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)20.52% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.97% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)53.03% (0.016000000000005 0.02)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.06% (-0.33399999999999 -0.33)22.94% (0.334 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.28% (-0.493 -0.49)56.71% (0.495 0.49)
Score Analysis
    Middlesbrough 40.42%
    Aston Villa 35.57%
    Draw 24%
MiddlesbroughDrawAston Villa
2-1 @ 8.69% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
1-0 @ 7.46% (0.11 0.11)
2-0 @ 5.9% (0.085 0.09)
3-1 @ 4.59% (0.02 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.38% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.12% (0.044 0.04)
4-1 @ 1.82% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.34% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.23% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 40.42%
1-1 @ 10.97% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-2 @ 6.4% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
0-0 @ 4.71% (0.07 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.66% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 24%
1-2 @ 8.08% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-1 @ 6.93% (0.036 0.04)
0-2 @ 5.1% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.97% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-3 @ 3.14% (-0.048 -0.05)
0-3 @ 2.5% (-0.037 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.46% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.16% (-0.029 -0.03)
0-4 @ 0.92% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 35.57%

How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Aston Villa

Middlesbrough
22.4%
Draw
11.8%
Aston Villa
65.8%
76
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 38
Aston Villa
3-0
Middlesbrough
El-Ghazi (28'), McGinn (44'), Adomah (88')

Obi Mikel (56')
> Match Report
Dec 1, 2018 5.30pm
Gameweek 20
Middlesbrough
0-3
Aston Villa

Friend (71')
Chester (20'), Abraham (65'), Whelan (83')
> Match Report
May 15, 2018 7.45pm
Semi-Finals
Aston Villa
0-0
Middlesbrough
Snodgrass (34'), Hutton (45'), Grealish (60'), Johnstone (87')
Friend (13'), Besic (80')
> Match Report
May 12, 2018 5.15pm
Semi-Finals
Middlesbrough
0-1
Aston Villa

Friend (45'), Gibson (49')
Jedinak (15')
Hourihane (13'), Snodgrass (75')
> Match Report
Dec 30, 2017 3pm
Middlesbrough
0-1
Aston Villa

Leadbitter (15'), Friend (67'), Downing (90')
Snodgrass (76')
Hourihane (24'), Onomah (30'), Elphick (45'), Chester (62')
rhs 2.0
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9Aston Villa115331717018
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