Sunday sees League One's worst defence host National League South's worst attack in what promises to be a nervy match for both sets of supporters. Chippenham Town have already shown they can defeat third-tier opposition in the FA Cup this season but the Pirelli Stadium is likely to be where their cup adventure ends. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burton Albion win with a probability of 62.46%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Chippenham Town had a probability of 17.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burton Albion win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.65%) and 1-0 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.34%), while for a Chippenham Town win it was 1-2 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burton Albion would win this match.

Result
Burton Albion	Draw	Chippenham Town
62.46% ( 0.11)	20.14% ( 0.02)	17.4% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 56.54% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.98% (

-0.36)

39.02% (

0.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.66% (

-0.38)

61.34% (

0.38)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.03% (

-0.08)

11.96% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.64% (

-0.16)

37.36% (

0.16)

Chippenham Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.22% (

-0.37)

35.78% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.44% (

-0.39)

72.55% (

0.39)

Score Analysis

Burton Albion 62.46%

Chippenham Town 17.4%

Draw 20.14%

Burton Albion	Draw	Chippenham Town
2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.65% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 9.09% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 3.73% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.54% ( 0) Other @ 3.96% Total : 62.46%	1-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.19% Total : 20.14%	1-2 @ 4.8% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 4.4% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.55% Total : 17.4%