Europa League

Europa League | Group Stage

Dec 9, 2021 at 8pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
1 - 0
Lokomotiv

Milik (35')
Gueye (18'), Rongier (63')
Rongier (80')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Kamano (24'), Maradishvili (26'), Smolov (56'), Tiknizyan (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Marseille and Lokomotiv Moscow, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Marseille 2-0 Lokomotiv Moscow

Facing an injury-hit Lokomotiv side lacking any real midfield presence represents the perfect opportunity for Marseille and Sampaoli to get back on track - even if a top-two finish is now out of the question. Gidsol's side are low on numbers, low on confidence and will simply be waiting for the final whistle to blow in Group E, so we can only back Les Olympiens to claim a confidence-boosting win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 50.46%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 20.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.42%) and 2-1 (7.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.24%), while for a Lokomotiv Moscow win it was 0-1 (9.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 18% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Marseille in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Marseille.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Lokomotiv Moscow
50.46%	29.48%	20.06%

Both teams to score 35.52%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

30.95%

69.05%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

13.38%

86.62%

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.82%

28.18%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.13%

63.87%

Lokomotiv Moscow Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.46%

50.55%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.97%

85.03%

Score Analysis

Marseille 50.46%

Lokomotiv Moscow 20.06%

Draw 29.47%

Marseille	Draw	Lokomotiv Moscow
1-0 @ 18.04% 2-0 @ 11.42% 2-1 @ 7.8% 3-0 @ 4.82% 3-1 @ 3.29% 4-0 @ 1.53% 3-2 @ 1.12% 4-1 @ 1.04% Other @ 1.4% Total : 50.46%	0-0 @ 14.24% 1-1 @ 12.3% 2-2 @ 2.66% Other @ 0.27% Total : 29.47%	0-1 @ 9.72% 1-2 @ 4.2% 0-2 @ 3.32% 1-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.87% Total : 20.06%