We believe Hajduk Split can use the visitors' lack of organisation on and off the pitch to their advantage by securing a crucial first-leg advantag. Whether it will prove to be enough to see them progress to the next round is another matter, but it would give them something to protect in Portugal next week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 43.89%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 27.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 2-1 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.07%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hajduk Split would win this match.

Result
Hajduk Split	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
43.89% ( 0.05)	28.33% ( 0.04)	27.78% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 44.53% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.79% (

-0.17)

61.21% (

0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.85% (

-0.13)

81.15% (

0.13)

Hajduk Split Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.25% (

-0.05)

27.75% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.67% (

-0.07)

63.33% (

0.07)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.63% (

-0.17)

38.37% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.88% (

-0.16)

75.12% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Hajduk Split 43.88%

Vitoria de Guimaraes 27.78%

Draw 28.32%

Hajduk Split	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
1-0 @ 13.64% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 8.75% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.74% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.58% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.2% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0) Other @ 1.73% Total : 43.88%	1-1 @ 13.07% 0-0 @ 10.64% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 4.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.59% Total : 28.32%	0-1 @ 10.2% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.26% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.59% Total : 27.78%