Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Groningen win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.