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EFL Cup
Plymouth Argyle
EFL Cup | First Round
Aug 14, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Home Park
Cheltenham Town

Plymouth
3 - 0
Cheltenham

Waine (62'), Hardie (81'), Bundu (84')
Szucs (86')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Pett (19'), Payne (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's EFL Cup clash between Plymouth Argyle and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Plymouth Argyle

All competitions
Last Game: Sheff Weds 4-0 Plymouth
Sunday, August 11 at 4pm in Championship

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
Last Game: Cheltenham 3-2 Newport
Saturday, August 10 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Plymouth Argyle 3-2 Cheltenham Town

 Cheltenham will feel that Plymouth's new-look side under Rooney are there for the taking and could push them close on Wednesday. However, we feel that the home side will do just enough to edge this contest, perhaps in the closing stages. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 40.06%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 35.75% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.61%) and 2-0 (5.93%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.

Result
Plymouth ArgyleDrawCheltenham Town
40.06% (-1.129 -1.13) 24.18% (0.142 0.14) 35.75% (0.985 0.98)
Both teams to score 60.62% (-0.331 -0.33)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.1% (-0.508 -0.51)41.89% (0.506 0.51)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.7% (-0.515 -0.52)64.3% (0.51300000000001 0.51)
Plymouth Argyle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.95% (-0.74299999999999 -0.74)21.04% (0.742 0.74)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.15% (-1.169 -1.17)53.84% (1.165 1.17)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.78% (0.301 0.3)23.22% (-0.302 -0.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.88% (0.437 0.44)57.12% (-0.439 -0.44)
Score Analysis
    Plymouth Argyle 40.06%
    Cheltenham Town 35.75%
    Draw 24.17%
Plymouth ArgyleDrawCheltenham Town
2-1 @ 8.67% (-0.119 -0.12)
1-0 @ 7.61% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 5.93% (-0.135 -0.14)
3-1 @ 4.5% (-0.167 -0.17)
3-2 @ 3.29% (-0.092 -0.09)
3-0 @ 3.08% (-0.142 -0.14)
4-1 @ 1.75% (-0.107 -0.11)
4-2 @ 1.28% (-0.066 -0.07)
4-0 @ 1.2% (-0.085 -0.09)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 40.06%
1-1 @ 11.11% (0.1 0.1)
2-2 @ 6.33% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-0 @ 4.89% (0.111 0.11)
3-3 @ 1.6% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 24.17%
1-2 @ 8.12% (0.144 0.14)
0-1 @ 7.13% (0.223 0.22)
0-2 @ 5.21% (0.207 0.21)
1-3 @ 3.95% (0.104 0.1)
2-3 @ 3.08% (0.013 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.54% (0.123 0.12)
1-4 @ 1.44% (0.051 0.05)
2-4 @ 1.12% (0.014 0.01)
0-4 @ 0.93% (0.053 0.05)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 35.75%

How you voted: Plymouth vs Cheltenham

Plymouth Argyle
79.7%
Draw
10.8%
Cheltenham Town
9.5%
74
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13Manchester UnitedMan Utd176472122-122
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