Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 43.07%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.85%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest Willem II win was 1-2 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.

Result
Jong Ajax	Draw	Willem II
43.07% ( 2.16)	23.19% ( 0.15)	33.74% ( -2.32)

Both teams to score 63.83% (

-1.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.5% (

-1.33)

37.5% (

1.32)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.27% (

-1.44)

59.73% (

1.43)

Jong Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.12% (

0.36)

17.88% (

-0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.34% (

0.62)

48.66% (

-0.62)

Willem II Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.73% (

-1.81)

22.27% (

1.81)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.29% (

-2.79)

55.71% (

2.79)

Score Analysis

Jong Ajax 43.07%

Willem II 33.74%

Draw 23.18%

Jong Ajax	Draw	Willem II
2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.29) 1-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.5) 2-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.5) 3-1 @ 5.09% ( 0.22) 3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.32) 4-1 @ 2.19% ( 0.12) 4-2 @ 1.64% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.46% ( 0.15) Other @ 3.88% Total : 43.07%	1-1 @ 10.29% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 3.98% ( 0.25) 3-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.18%	1-2 @ 7.73% ( -0.26) 0-1 @ 5.98% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.21) 1-3 @ 3.87% ( -0.36) 2-3 @ 3.33% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.24) 1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.22) 2-4 @ 1.25% ( -0.18) Other @ 3.38% Total : 33.74%